Which European countries have the largest Muslim populations as of 2025?

1. Russia first — long‑standing, indigenous Muslim populations

Multiple sources state Russia holds Europe’s largest Muslim population and will likely continue to do so; one 2025 summary gives an estimated 16 million Muslims in Russia (about 11% of 146 million) and Pew’s regional analysis projects Russia will remain top in coming decades ^{[1] [2]}. That ranking reflects centuries‑old Muslim communities across the North Caucasus and Volga regions (Tatars, Bashkirs, Chechens) rather than only recent immigration ^{[1] [6]}.

2. France, Germany and the UK: the Western trio with the biggest Muslim communities

Western‑Europe estimates repeatedly put France, Germany and the United Kingdom among the top holders of Muslim population in Europe. Statista (drawing on Pew) lists approximately 5.72 million Muslims in France and about 4.95 million in Germany as of earlier estimates; separate 2025 analyses give France roughly 6–7 million, Germany 5–6 million and the UK 4–5 million ^{[3] [4]}. Pew also reports that Muslims make up about 6% of Europe overall and highlights growth patterns across Western countries ^{[7] [5]}.

3. Numbers differ by method — immigration, fertility and data gaps drive variance

Sources warn that totals depend on methodologies: census questions about religion are inconsistent across Europe, researchers use differing migration and fertility scenarios, and some estimates combine resident non‑citizens and native‑born Muslims differently ^{[6] [7]}. Pew’s scenarios and fertility analysis explain part of the divergence: Muslim fertility has historically been higher than non‑Muslim fertility in many countries but that gap is narrowing — a key variable in medium‑ and long‑term counts ^{[7] [2]}.

4. Other European countries with sizable Muslim populations

Beyond the four biggest, Italy, the Netherlands and others are regularly cited as having sizable Muslim minorities: one 2025 summary lists Italy at 2–3 million, and the Netherlands appears in “top 10” lists with about 1 million ^{[4] [8]}. Coverage and rankings differ by source and often rely on older baseline datasets (2016–2020) updated with migration trends to 2025 estimates ^{[8] [9]}.

5. Projections and contested narratives — who is growing and why it matters

Pew’s modelling projects Europe’s Muslim share under different migration scenarios and highlights that migration accounts for a large portion of recent growth while fertility and age structure also matter ^[7]. Some popular outlets emphasize dramatic future changes (tripling or large proportional gains), but sources caution projections depend heavily on migration assumptions and on fertility convergence — points stressed in Pew and academic explanations ^{[4] [7]}.

6. Limitations and conflicting claims in the available reporting

Available sources do not present a single definitive 2025 census for every country; many numbers are modelled or extrapolated from 2016–2020 baselines ^{[3] [7]}. Media lists and blogs provide different absolute totals (e.g., France 5.7 million vs. 6–7 million) because of diverging inputs and updating practices ^{[3] [4]}. Readers should treat precise totals as estimates rather than final counts ^[6].

7. What to take away: ranking vs. precision

The consistent, well‑supported takeaway across the sources is: Russia is the largest single European country by number of Muslims; among EU/Western countries, France, Germany and the UK have the largest Muslim populations; several other countries (Italy, Netherlands, Balkan states) host significant communities. Exact 2025 totals vary by source because of methodology, data age and migration assumptions — a point emphasized by Pew and compendium sources cited here ^{[2] [7] [4]}.

If you want, I can compile a comparative table showing the different 2025 estimates side‑by‑side from these sources (Pew/Statista/NextBigFuture/other) so you can see where they agree and diverge.