Which European countries had the largest percentage increase in Muslim population between 2000 and 2025?
Executive summary
Pew’s most detailed continental analysis uses 2016 baseline estimates and projects growth driven mainly by migration and higher fertility; it puts Europe’s Muslim population at 25.8 million (4.9%) in mid‑2016, up from 19.5 million (3.8%) in 2010 and projects large variation across countries depending on migration scenarios [1]. Available sources in your search set do not provide a ranked, country‑by‑country list of percentage increases in Muslim population specifically for 2000→2025; they do provide regional trends, projections and country‑level projections to 2050 that can be used as context [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the direct 2000→2025 ranking is not in these sources
No document among the results supplies an explicit table that measures the percentage increase in each European country’s Muslim population between 2000 and 2025. Pew’s flagship report in the dataset sets a mid‑2016 baseline and offers scenarios to 2050 (not a straightforward 2000→2025 census series) [1]. Statista reproduces Pew projections for 2016–2050 for selected countries but not a 2000–2025 ranking [2]. Therefore a definitive ranked list for 2000→2025 cannot be produced from the available reporting; any such list would require combining multiple national censuses and updated 2025 estimates not present in these sources.
2. What the best available sources do show: continental and scenario baselines
Pew’s analysis defines Europe here as the EU‑28 plus Norway and Switzerland, estimates 25.8 million Muslims in mid‑2016 (4.9% of the population) and emphasizes that migration has been the largest driver of recent growth while higher fertility and a younger age profile also matter [1]. The report models zero, medium and high migration scenarios to 2050 because the geographic distribution of migration policies creates large cross‑country differences in outcomes [1].
3. Which countries are repeatedly flagged as high‑growth in other reporting
Across the dataset, Western European destination countries—France, Germany and the United Kingdom—appear frequently as having the largest absolute Muslim populations and therefore the largest absolute increases in recent decades (France and Germany are cited repeatedly in summaries, and Statista reproduces country projections) [2] [1]. Pew notes that some countries will be more affected by migration than others because of government policy and recent refugee flows [1]. Specific numeric percentage changes for 2000–2025 are not provided in these items.
4. Eastern Europe’s jump after 1990 and implications for the 2000s
Pew and a regional summary note that much of Eastern Europe’s Muslim population growth occurred in the 1990s (1990→2000) following the end of communism, when religious identities re‑emerged; that surge is part of why Eastern Europe showed a notable increase from 4.9% to 6.2% in the 1990s, but the available reporting does not give a 2000→2025 country list [3]. That historic context means some Balkan and Caucasus countries saw early rises that differ in character from Western Europe’s migration‑driven growth [3].
5. How researchers build country projections—and why they differ
Projections mix fertility assumptions with migration scenarios. Pew’s method keeps fertility gaps (Muslim women younger and higher‑fertility) in analytical models and treats migration as a variable scenario; other academic work applies forecasting models and different fertility assumptions to obtain country‑level trajectories [1] [4]. These methodological choices explain why one headline can say “tripled over 30 years” (European Parliament summary) while Pew’s scenario outcomes are more modest and nuanced [5] [1].
6. What you can reliably do next with the available reporting
If you want a ranked list for 2000→2025 you need one of two things not in this search set: (a) harmonized national census or survey series for each country for 2000 and 2025 (many countries do not collect religion in censuses, complicating this), or (b) an updated Pew‑style dataset that provides estimated Muslim shares for 2000 and 2025 for each country. The present sources show how to interpret such a list—migration and fertility explain most growth and outcomes vary by national policy—but they do not contain the direct country‑by‑country 2000→2025 percentage change requested [1] [2] [3].
Limitations and competing views: Pew emphasizes migration and fertility as primary drivers and models multiple scenarios [1]. Other summaries and commentaries highlight broader narratives—some claim rapid doubling or tripling in different timeframes [5] [6] while skeptical pieces caution about misleading “invasion” framings and point to parallel growth among other religions and the unaffiliated [7]. Readers should treat headline percentage claims cautiously and consult country‑level census data or Pew’s full datasets for rigorous comparisons [1] [3].