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Which European countries are expected to see the largest percentage increase in Muslim population by 2030?
Executive summary
Pew Research’s 2011 projections (widely cited and summarized by other outlets) predict the largest percentage increases in Muslim shares by 2030 will occur in several smaller and northern European countries — notably Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia‑Herzegovina and several Nordic states — and that some Western European countries (France, UK, Italy, Germany) will see large absolute increases though smaller percentage jumps [1] [2]. Coverage emphasizes that these are projections based on fertility, age structure and migration assumptions and that results vary strongly by country and scenario [2] [3].
1. What the main projection says: big percentage jumps in parts of Eastern and Northern Europe
The Pew report most commonly cited in the dataset projects that by 2030 Muslims will make up extremely large shares in some Balkan countries — Kosovo (93.5%) and Albania (83.2%) — and very large shares in Bosnia‑Herzegovina (42.7%) and Macedonia (40.3%); it also lists Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%) as countries with Muslim populations above 10% by 2030 [1] [2]. The report further highlights that “the Republic of Macedonia is projected to have the largest increase in the portion of its population that is Muslim” in percentage‑point terms [1].
2. Which countries show the largest percentage increases (not just totals)
Pew’s analysis singles out several countries where the Muslim share is projected to rise by the largest percentages: Russia’s Muslim population is expected to grow from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030 (not the biggest percentage increase in share, but the largest absolute Muslim population); the report also notes projected percentage increases of more than 100% for Finland, Norway, Sweden and Italy, and 50–100% increases for the United Kingdom, Spain, Belgium, Austria and Switzerland [1]. This means some smaller non‑Muslim majority countries in Northern and Western Europe are expected to record the biggest relative growth rates under Pew’s scenarios [1].
3. Why these increases are projected: fertility, age structure and migration
Pew’s methodology attributes growth to three main factors: higher fertility among Muslims relative to other Europeans, a younger age profile among Muslims (so more childbearing years), and migration flows; even a “zero migration” scenario still shows rising Muslim shares because of demographic momentum [2] [3]. The center emphasizes uncertainty in migration and political factors — changes in migration policy or global instability would alter outcomes [2].
4. Absolute versus relative change — why numbers can be misleading
Several sources caution readers to separate percentage‑point increases from absolute numbers: Western countries such as the UK, France, Italy and Germany are expected to see substantial absolute increases in Muslim population numbers even if their percentage‑point gains are smaller than in some Balkan or Nordic states [1]. Media summaries (e.g., Deutsche Welle, TIME) reiterate the difference between a one‑country large proportional rise (common where baseline Muslim shares are small) and large absolute increases in big populations [4] [5].
5. Competing viewpoints and limitations in the data
Analysts question the precision of projections: some note that many European censuses do not ask religion, that conversion and secularization trends may be undercounted, and that fertility convergence could reduce growth [6]. Prospect magazine and other commentators present alternative projection methodologies yielding lower long‑term percentages in some Western countries, stressing convergence assumptions [7]. Pew itself warns projections rely on assumptions and are sensitive to migration policy and geopolitical events [2].
6. How to read headlines and extreme claims
Less rigorous extrapolations and alarmist pieces (recycled on non‑academic sites) have produced statements like “Muslims will ‘take over’ Europe by 2030” or that Britain will be majority Muslim by mid‑century; these claims are not supported by the Pew projections in the provided materials, which forecast modest percentage shares in most Western countries and give concrete country‑level percentages for 2030 [2] [1]. The provided academic and media sources repeatedly frame the Pew results as projections under specific scenarios, not deterministic predictions [2] [4].
7. Bottom line for your question
Based on the sources compiled here, the largest percentage increases in Muslim share by 2030 are expected in parts of the Balkans (Kosovo, Albania, Bosnia‑Herzegovina, Macedonia), several Nordic countries and some Western European states under Pew’s scenarios — with Finland, Norway, Sweden and Italy noted as showing projected percentage increases above 100%, and the UK, Spain, Belgium, Austria and Switzerland showing 50–100% increases — while large absolute increases are expected in the UK, France, Italy and Germany [1] [2]. Remember: these are scenario‑based projections sensitive to fertility, age structure and future migration, and commentators urge caution because of data and methodological limits [3] [6].