What are the projected growth rates of Muslim populations in European countries by 2030?

1. What the main projection says — Europe as a whole

Pew’s headline projection, repeated across multiple outlets, is that the Muslim population in the 30 European countries studied will rise to about 58 million by 2030, up from roughly 44 million in 2010, and that Muslims will make up about 8% of Europe’s population by 2030 ^{[1] [2]}. That same Pew work underlies the widely circulated graphic maps and summaries in Time, The Guardian and other outlets ^{[4] [5]}.

2. Why Pew’s model shows growth — fertility, age and migration

Pew explains the increase as the product of three demographic drivers: higher fertility (Muslim populations are on average younger and have higher birth rates), age-structure differences that keep Muslim populations growing faster, and continued migration — both regular migration and refugee flows — which together have been the biggest short-term factor in Europe’s recent Muslim population growth ^{[3] [6] [7]}.

3. Country-level snapshots cited in reporting

Pew supplied specific 2030 share estimates for several countries cited broadly in reporting: Austria about 9.3%, Sweden about 9.9%, Belgium about 10.2%, and France about 10.3% in 2030 ^[3]. Other reporting and academic projections put country ranges for many West European states between roughly 4% and 14% by 2030, noting substantial variation across countries ^[8].

4. Scenarios and uncertainties — migration assumptions matter

Pew’s publicized projections include multiple migration scenarios (zero, medium, high) for longer horizons; social-media maps that use the highest‑migration scenario have been altered and misused, prompting fact checks (Reuters) that note some viral claims pick Pew’s highest migration model rather than the medium baseline ^[9]. Reporters and analysts stress that migration policy, conflict-driven refugee flows and future fertility convergence create real uncertainty around mid-century and country-level outcomes ^{[6] [9]}.

5. Where other analyses converge or diverge

Independent projections (e.g., Prospect Magazine’s modelling) find similar ranges for many Western European countries — often between about 4% and 14% by 2030 — but highlight methodological differences and different assumptions about fertility convergence and immigrant composition ^[8]. The Time map (based on Pew data) and Wikipedia summaries repeat the 58 million / 8% 2030 figure, indicating broad convergence around Pew’s headline numbers ^{[4] [2]}.

6. Limitations, measurement challenges and sceptical voices

Several sources warn of data and measurement limits: many European countries (notably France) do not collect religion in census data, and analyses must therefore rely on indirect estimation, surveys and modelling ^{[2] [10]}. Some scholars question projections’ sensitivity to fertility decline among immigrant-origin populations and to long-term secularisation, arguing that fertility convergence or rising non-religiosity could reduce growth relative to some scenarios ^{[2] [8]}.

7. Misuse and misinformation to watch for

Fact-checking outlets (e.g., Reuters) and disinformation monitors note that maps and viral claims sometimes cherry-pick the high-migration scenario or alter figures to suggest implausible outcomes (for example, exaggerated 2050 percentages in certain Balkan states); such misuse inflates fear or supports “Eurabia” narratives that Pew and others explicitly find unrealistic on demographic grounds ^{[9] [11] [12]}. Analysts and reporters recommend checking whether a cited map or claim uses Pew’s medium (baseline) scenario or the high‑migration variant ^[9].

8. Bottom line for policymakers and readers

Available reporting centers on Pew’s baseline projection to 2030: roughly 58 million Muslims in Europe (~8%), with notable country variation and faster increases in places with younger Muslim demographics and recent immigration ^{[1] [3]}. But these projections are sensitive to migration flows, policy changes and potential fertility convergence — and viral maps or claims that use Pew’s high‑migration scenario without context have been debunked or labelled misleading ^{[9] [6]}.

If you want, I can extract a country-by-country list of Pew’s 2030 percentages cited in the report (where available in these sources) and mark which figures come from baseline vs. alternative scenarios. Available sources do not mention a complete, verified country-by-country table within the search results you provided.