Fact check: Is it true that rapes are increasing in Europe or are they just more accurately counted?

1. Summary of the results

The evidence presents a complex picture regarding rape trends in Europe, with both increasing reports and improved counting mechanisms playing significant roles.

Statistical increases are documented across multiple European countries:

• London reported over 8,800 rape incidents in 2023, averaging 24 cases per day ^[1]
• Germany experienced a 9.3% increase in rape and sexual assault cases in 2024, which the interior minister described as "very worrying" ^[2]
• Scotland saw a "staggering" 15% rise in reports of rape and attempted rape, with 2,897 cases reported in 2024-25 ^[3]

However, improved reporting mechanisms are also a significant factor:

• Ireland's data suggests that increased reporting rather than actual increases in incidents explains much of the statistical rise ^[4]
• Charities consistently emphasize that the true extent of sexual offending is much higher due to underreporting ^[1]

Baseline prevalence remains alarmingly high:

• EU-wide surveys reveal that one in six women have experienced sexual violence, including rape in their adulthood ^{[5] [6]}
• One in three women in the EU have experienced violence overall ^{[5] [6]}

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks several crucial contextual factors:

• Definitional variations: Different European countries define rape differently, making direct comparisons problematic ^[4]
• Historical underreporting: The analyses consistently highlight that sexual violence has been systematically underreported for decades, meaning current increases may reflect better reporting systems rather than actual crime increases
• Societal awareness campaigns: The data doesn't account for how #MeToo movements and increased awareness may have encouraged more victims to come forward
• High-profile cases driving conversation: Cases like the French rape case involving dozens of perpetrators have sparked nationwide conversations about consent and violence against women ^[7], potentially influencing reporting rates

Who benefits from different interpretations:

• Law enforcement agencies and politicians may benefit from emphasizing actual increases to justify increased funding and tougher policies
• Women's rights organizations benefit from highlighting both the scale of underreporting and actual increases to secure resources for prevention and support services
• Anti-immigration groups might exploit rape statistics to advance restrictive immigration policies, though the analyses don't provide demographic breakdowns of perpetrators

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question contains an implicit false dichotomy by suggesting rape trends are either increasing OR being more accurately counted, when the evidence shows both phenomena are occurring simultaneously.

Potential biases include:

• Oversimplification: The question fails to acknowledge that improved reporting and actual increases can coexist
• Missing systemic context: No consideration of how "attitudes that underpin sexual violence" ^[3] contribute to both the problem and reporting patterns
• Lack of prevention focus: The question doesn't address calls from organizations like Rape Crisis Scotland for more investment in prevention work with young people ^[3]

The evidence suggests that Europe is experiencing both genuine increases in sexual violence and significantly improved reporting mechanisms, making this a multifaceted crisis requiring comprehensive policy responses rather than simple statistical interpretation.