Which European capitals have the highest share of Muslims relative to total population in 2025?
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Executive summary
Brussels and several Western European capitals show the highest reported shares of Muslim students — Brussels is cited at about 52%, Amsterdam around 43%, and Vienna about 41% in 2025 reporting tied to school populations (not whole-city adult populations) [1] [2] [3]. National-level estimates put France, Germany and the UK among countries with the largest Muslim populations in absolute terms, but city-school figures and country shares are different metrics and sources vary widely [4] [5] [6].
1. Capitals versus countries: different measures, different stories
Most of the available pieces in this set of sources report high percentages for Muslim students in certain capital-city school populations rather than the share of Muslims in the total resident population of the whole capital. For example, the widely cited 2025 figures — Brussels ~52%, Amsterdam ~43%, Vienna ~41% — are presented as percentages of school-aged children or students in city schools, not as shares of the total adult population of the city [1] [2] [3]. Comparing those school-based percentages to national-level shares (e.g., France’s ~6–9% of the national population) confuses different phenomena; sources here do not claim equivalence [4] [5].
2. School rolls exaggerate youth concentration
Reporting on Brussels, Amsterdam and Vienna focuses on school populations where Muslim children are disproportionately represented because Muslim communities tend to be younger and have higher fertility rates — a demographic dynamic noted by Pew and echoed in reporting — so student cohorts can show much higher percentages than the adult population [1] [7]. Reuters explicitly warns the Vienna 41% figure applies to state elementary and middle schools and excludes private and federal schools, underscoring how methodology alters results [3].
3. Sources disagree; methodology matters
The numbers in circulation come from a mix of city surveys, projections and aggregated analyses; some outlets present projections for 2025, others report local education surveys. Independent fact-checking highlights inconsistencies: Reuters found that national German microcensus data do not consistently support a 23% schoolchild-Muslim figure cited elsewhere and that France does not collect religion in national statistics, forcing reliance on surveys like TeO2 for Paris estimates [3]. These methodological gaps mean ranking capitals by “share of Muslims” depends heavily on which metric and source you choose [3].
4. Capitals with the “highest share” in current reporting
Within the available reporting, Brussels is repeatedly cited as the European capital with the highest share of Muslim students (~52%), followed by Amsterdam (~43%) and Vienna (~41%) in 2025-focused pieces; London and other cities appear lower in the school-focused lists [1] [2] [3]. These claims are made by media analyses and thematic sites in 2025 reporting; independent organizations like Open Society have also documented concentrated Muslim populations in specific cities and neighborhoods but stress their samples are not fully representative of whole-city totals [8].
5. National context: large Muslim populations but not always city-dominant
By country totals, sources estimate Europe’s Muslim population near the mid‑2020s at roughly 44–46 million (about 6% of Europe), with France, Germany and the UK among countries with the largest absolute Muslim populations (France ~6–7 million, Germany ~5–6 million, UK ~4–5 million in varied 2025-era estimates) — figures that do not identify which capitals have the highest city shares [4] [5] [6]. Pew’s regional analyses emphasize uneven distribution: a country can have a large Muslim population in absolute terms without any single capital having a majority or near-majority adult Muslim share [7] [9].
6. What reporting does not say
Available sources do not mention a comprehensive, comparable 2025 dataset listing every European capital ranked by share of Muslims in the total resident population; the prominent figures in these sources focus on school-age cohorts or on national estimates [3] [1] [2]. Assertions that entire capitals — adults and all residents — are majority Muslim in 2025 are not substantiated in the provided reporting and are instead framed around student populations or projections [1] [2] [3].
7. How to interpret these numbers responsibly
Treat the Brussels/Amsterdam/Vienna figures as evidence of concentrated, youthful Muslim populations in city schools, not as definitive measures of whole‑city adult demographics; check methodology (school vs. total population, inclusion/exclusion of private schools, survey vs. census) before drawing broader conclusions [3] [1] [2]. For national comparisons, use country-level population estimates (which show France, Germany and the UK with the largest absolute Muslim populations) and consult transparent demographic studies like Pew’s for scenario-based projections [4] [5] [7].
If you want, I can assemble a single table that separates (a) reported 2025 percentages for school populations in specific capitals and (b) country-level 2025 Muslim population estimates from these sources, with each figure linked to its original citation [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].