Fact check: What are the most recent rape rate trends in European countries, and how do they compare to 2023?

Executive summary — recent European rape-rate picture in two lines

The most consistent, recent finding is reported rape and sexual violence remain high and in several places have increased since 2023, with England and Wales showing a documented rise in police-recorded rapes in 2024 and headline reports in 2025 describing record levels of reporting ^{[1] [2]}. At the same time, EU-wide survey work and national statistics reveal wide variation between countries, large underreporting, differing legal definitions, and persistent gaps in prosecutions, meaning year-to-year comparisons are informative but must be interpreted cautiously ^{[3] [2]}.

1. What the headline claims say — rising reports and a "hidden pandemic" that demands attention

Multiple recent analyses converge on the claim that reports of rape and sexual assault are substantial and rising in parts of Europe, notably in England and Wales where police-recorded rapes rose from 68,045 in 2023 to 71,227 in 2024, a 5% increase ^[1]. Journalistic and NGO reporting in October 2025 framed child sexual abuse as a "hidden pandemic", estimating one in 15 children has been raped or sexually assaulted and highlighting particularly high prevalence in some countries, which amplifies concern about broader trends across Europe ^{[4] [2]}.

2. England and Wales: record reporting but low charges — a complex signal

England and Wales show a clear increase in recorded rapes in 2024 versus 2023, and reporting rates there now outstrip other European jurisdictions by some measures, with rape constituting 34.2% of sexual offences in a 2025 report ^{[1] [2]}. Simultaneously, the criminal justice response is strikingly limited: a tiny share of reported cases proceed to charge — just 2.8% in the cited coverage — which signals either investigative bottlenecks, evidentiary challenges, or systemic failures in handling sexual‑offence reports rather than simple changes in victimization incidence ^[2].

3. National statistics that complicate cross-country comparisons: Germany and others

National police statistics in Germany provide detailed counts for offenses such as rape, sexual coercion and sexual assault, but they do not always furnish year‑on‑year comparisons to 2023 in the available summaries, limiting direct trend claims ^[5]. Other country-level reporting referenced in compilations points to higher recorded rates in Sweden and Denmark in some datasets, yet these figures reflect different legal definitions and recording practices, meaning higher recorded rates can reflect broader definitions or more active reporting and recording rather than purely higher incidence ^{[6] [5]}.

4. The EU survey: prevalence context rather than immediate rate shifts

The EU Gender‑Based Violence survey (2024 edition) supplies robust prevalence estimates across all 27 member states, showing one in three women in the EU has suffered physical or sexual violence and around 5% report being raped, but it does not serve as an annual incident series for direct 2023–2024 comparisons ^[3]. The survey contextualizes how widespread gender‑based violence is across Europe and functions as a baseline for policy, while national police statistics capture short‑term recorded changes influenced by reporting behaviour and law enforcement practice ^[7].

5. Child sexual abuse data adds a distinct and alarming layer

A 2025 report highlighted in the data asserts one in 15 children in Europe has experienced rape or sexual assault, with girls disproportionately affected and particular countries showing higher tag rates for sexual violence ^[4]. This child‑focused evidence underscores that adult-focused rape statistics are only part of the picture, and rising awareness or targeted studies can reveal harms previously hidden — again complicating simple year‑to‑year comparisons with adult police records ^[4].

6. Why year‑on‑year comparisons to 2023 are fragile and easily misread

Comparisons between 2023 and later years are vulnerable to three major distortions: changes in reporting behaviour (victim willingness to report), legal and recording definitions that vary by country, and variations in police recording practice or data releases ^{[1] [5] [3]}. For example, rising recorded rapes in England and Wales may reflect both genuine increases and improved reporting or recording; likewise, countries with low recorded rates may have underreporting. Interpreting trend direction therefore requires combining police data, victimization surveys, and prosecutorial statistics ^{[2] [3]}.

7. What the mixed evidence implies for policymakers, researchers and the public

The evidence together demands policy responses that address both prevention and the justice gap: improved victim support, standardized recording across jurisdictions, and investment in survey capacity to capture prevalence beyond police data ^{[3] [2]}. Researchers should triangulate police records with large‑scale surveys like the EU study and targeted investigations into child abuse to form a coherent multi‑year picture; the current corpus shows increased reporting in some places since 2023 but also persistent underprosecution and uneven data comparability across Europe ^{[1] [7] [4]}.