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What factors contributed to changes in reported rape rates during the COVID-19 pandemic?
Executive summary
Reported rape rates during COVID-19 changed for multiple, sometimes opposing reasons: some jurisdictions and studies recorded increases in reported incidents or hotline contacts tied to lockdowns and economic stress (e.g., reports of domestic violence rising by "40% or more" in some countries) while other indicators—911 calls, emergency department visits, forensic exams and official police reports—fell because survivors faced barriers to help-seeking during the pandemic [1] [2]. Governments’ differing legal definitions, reporting systems and pandemic-era service disruptions further complicate comparisons across time and between countries [3] [4].
1. Lockdowns concentrated risk and appear to have increased some forms of sexual violence
Public-health measures—stay-at-home orders, school closures and job losses—placed more people in confined households and removed work/school escape routes, which multiple organizations and researchers linked to rises in domestic and sexual violence during the pandemic; for example, Physicians for Human Rights cited that reports of domestic violence "have increased by 40% or more in some countries" as lockdowns intensified risk factors [1]. Country-level reporting also recorded local spikes—researchers studying Nigeria described a perceived "upsurge of rape during the COVID-19 lockdown" with thousands of reported cases cited in domestic reporting during the lockdown period [5].
2. At the same time, formal reporting and service use fell in many settings
A body of research on survivors’ experiences shows a simultaneous decline in formal help-seeking: 911 calls about assault and rape, emergency department admissions for sexual assault and receipt of forensic exams decreased in several studies during the pandemic, suggesting undercounting in official statistics even where violence rose [2]. Journalists and legal experts warned that survivors delayed or could not access hospitals, crisis centers or law enforcement because of fear of infection, lost income, or closures—reducing visible reports even as need increased [6] [2].
3. Changes in reporting practices and legal definitions confound trends
Comparing reported rape rates over time or between countries requires caution: the FBI explicitly changed its rape definition and how it reports those statistics (the 2013 revised rape definition adopted for 2013–2024 estimates), which alters historical trend comparability in U.S. data [3]. Internationally, United Nations and data compilers warn that different legal definitions, victim protections and cultural norms affecting reporting make cross-country comparisons unreliable [4] [7].
4. Service disruptions and institutional capacity affected detection and documentation
Health systems and social services redirected resources to COVID-19 response. The U.S. Department of State and other reports noted that pandemic restrictions exacerbated domestic violence while shelters and protective services faced operational challenges; ministries and NGOs created ad hoc protocols but capacity and reporting varied [8]. Rape crisis centers reported urgent funding shortfalls and the need to adapt services—factors that reduce the ability to document and process cases even when survivor contacts increased [6].
5. Data sources capture different slices of the problem—hotlines vs. police vs. healthcare
Different indicators moved in different directions: anonymous hotlines and some NGO helplines registered qualitative increases in survivor concerns and contacts, whereas police reports, ER admissions and forensic exams declined in many studies [2] [6]. This divergence shows that a single metric (police statistics alone) will understate the pandemic’s effects on sexual violence unless contextualized with health, shelter and hotline data [2] [1].
6. Socioeconomic stressors and school closures changed patterns of victimization
Analysts emphasized that economic insecurity and school shutdowns altered exposure and risk: with students returning home or perpetrators moving back into shared residences, some survivors experienced renewed or increased abuse; researchers cited college closures as a mechanism for increased household exposure to perpetrators [2]. The Guttmacher and humanitarian assessments flagged how broader pandemic disruptions worsened pre-existing gendered vulnerabilities that shape sexual and reproductive harms [9] [10].
7. What this means for interpreting "reported rape rates"
Reported rates during COVID-19 are a product of at least three things: actual incidence changes, survivors’ ability and willingness to report, and administrative/data-definition shifts. The FBI’s note about the revised rape definition demonstrates how reporting artifacts can change the apparent rate, while studies documenting reduced help-seeking show genuine under-recording during the pandemic [3] [2]. Cross-national rankings without careful caveats are misleading because legal definitions and reporting cultures vary [4] [7].
Limitations and open questions: available sources document these mechanisms and give country examples but do not provide a single global quantified adjustment that reconciles higher hotline reports with lower formal filings; detailed national time-series analyses that combine police, health and hotline data are needed to quantify the net change in true incidence (not found in current reporting).