What factors drove changes in welfare enrollment among Somali immigrants in Minnesota from 2015 to 2024?

1. Growing population and newcomers changed the baseline

The Somali population in Minnesota expanded substantially over decades and into the 2010s and early 2020s; sources put Minnesota’s Somali numbers in the tens of thousands and the Twin Cities as home to the largest concentration nationally — roughly 84,000 in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area and reporting of roughly 107,000 statewide in 2024 — which increases absolute welfare enrollment even if per-capita use falls ^{[4] [5] [3]}. Minnesota also continued to receive refugee arrivals and secondary movers, and state refugee programs — including Refugee Cash Assistance and Refugee Employment Services — explicitly create early short-term welfare eligibility that spikes initial enrollment for new arrivals ^{[2] [7]}.

2. Refugee-specific programs and eligibility rules inflate early enrollment

Federal and state refugee assistance structures provide time-limited cash, social and employment services to newly arrived refugees; Minnesota’s Refugee Cash Assistance (RCA) is available up to 12 months and is separate from long-term programs like MFIP or SSI, meaning resettlement flows directly drive short-term welfare counts among Somalis even as many move toward employment afterward ^{[2] [8]}. Refugee resettlement agencies in Minnesota explicitly place newcomers into services, which raises program caseloads in the initial years following arrival ^{[9] [10]}.

3. Economic mobility and labor-force gains reduced persistent dependency

Multiple analyses and advocacy materials document rising workforce participation and falling poverty rates over time for Somali-born Minnesotans: poverty levels have dropped, employment has risen, median household income ticked up and educational attainment made marginal gains — trends that plausibly lowered per-capita reliance on long-term welfare between 2015 and 2024 ^[1]. The Minnesota Chamber case study and related reporting attribute part of the decline to Somali employment concentrated in sectors like home health care and food manufacturing that created pathways off public assistance ^[1].

4. Age structure and family composition shaped program use

Sources note high youth proportions and family-size patterns in the Somali population; larger families and a younger age distribution tend to increase eligibility and use of child-focused benefits and nutrition programs, and explain why food assistance and child-service enrollments grew even as employment rose among adults ^{[11] [7]}. State-level caseload metrics and school enrollment data reflect these demographic realities, which produce both short- and medium-term program demand ^{[11] [7]}.

5. Fraud investigations and political attacks raised enforcement and reduced trust

Beginning in the early 2020s, high-profile investigations alleging fraud in multiple welfare-related programs — including Feeding Our Future and autism-service schemes — drew national attention and political rhetoric that explicitly tied some schemes to Somali-community operators; reporting and opinion pieces argue the fraud siphoned millions and prompted program cuts, agency actions and federal scrutiny that affected program availability and community willingness to engage with state services ^{[6] [3] [12]}. Competing narratives exist: investigative outlets and think tanks emphasized large-scale fraud and ties to foreign remittances, while community advocates and local leaders warned against demonizing an entire population and noted many Somali residents contributed to the state economy ^{[6] [3] [13]}.

6. Policy shifts and federal immigration moves influenced enrollment dynamics

Federal and state policy choices — from refugee admission caps, USCIS/ICE actions, to potential changes in Temporary Protected Status — altered both inflows and the legal status of residents, which in turn affects program eligibility and enrollment trends; Minnesota’s resettlement projections and DHS refugee programming shape how many people enter welfare-eligible categories and for how long ^{[2] [14]}. Sources document policy debates and actions through 2024 and into 2025 that complicate a simple enrollment narrative ^{[2] [14]}.

7. Data limitations and contested measurements

Official measures combine multiple programs (RCA, MFIP, SNAP, Medicaid) and different categorizations (newly arrived refugees vs. long-term immigrants), so trends in “welfare enrollment” depend on which program is counted; some commentators claim very high Somali welfare dependence but empirical state and research sources show a more nuanced picture of declining poverty and rising employment over time ^{[1] [11]}. Available sources do not provide a single, consistent time series isolating Somali enrollment across every program from 2015–2024, so precise year‑to‑year attribution is not found in current reporting (not found in current reporting).

Conclusion: Multiple, interacting factors drove changes in Somali welfare enrollment in Minnesota from 2015–2024: population growth and refugee resettlement increased counts; refugee-specific short-term assistance raised early caseloads; labor-market gains reduced chronic dependency; demographic patterns kept demand for child and food programs elevated; and fraud probes plus political attacks spurred enforcement changes and reputational harm that affected both policy and community trust — a complex story reflected across Minnesota state materials, local reporting and national coverage ^{[2] [1] [6] [4]}.