Which European country has the fastest-growing Muslim population between 2010 and 2025?
Executive summary
Pew’s country-level reporting shows that Europe’s Muslim population grew fastest in several Northern and Western countries between 2010 and the mid‑2010s, driven mainly by migration and higher Muslim fertility; Pew reports 3.7 million Muslim migrants to Europe between mid‑2010 and mid‑2016 and an increase in the EU/Europe Muslim population from about 19.5 million in 2010 to 25.8 million by mid‑2016 [1]. Pew’s country charts and summaries highlight Sweden, Austria and Germany among countries with measurable rises in Muslim share during 2010–2020, although no European country saw a rise of more than five percentage points in that decade [2].
1. Which country “grew fastest”? The data and what it actually measure
“Fastest‑growing” can mean fastest absolute increase in Muslim population, fastest percentage‑point rise in share of the population, or highest annual growth rate; Pew’s Europe work used counts and shares and emphasizes migration and natural increase as drivers. Pew’s baseline shows the Muslim population in the EU+Norway+Switzerland rose from about 19.5 million in 2010 to 25.8 million in mid‑2016 — an addition of 6.3 million mostly explained by 3.7 million migrants plus natural increase [1]. Country‑level reporting and summaries in later Pew releases point to Sweden, Austria and Germany as among those with notable increases in Muslim share, but no European country exceeded a five‑percentage‑point rise in 2010–2020 [2].
2. Migration was the dominant short‑term engine of change
Pew’s analysis finds that between mid‑2010 and mid‑2016, migration accounted for the largest portion of Muslim population growth in Europe; an estimated 3.7 million Muslims migrated to Europe in that window, including roughly 980,000 Muslim refugees arriving 2014–mid‑2016 [1]. The same report notes natural increase also added roughly 2.9 million Muslims over that period [1]. Thus, countries receiving larger migrant flows — not fertility differences alone — experienced the fastest short‑term gains in Muslim population size and share [1].
3. Country examples cited by Pew and analysts
Pew and its follow‑ups cite several specific countries that saw measurable growth in Muslim share: Sweden’s Muslim share rose by about four percentage points, Austria by three, and Germany by about one point in the 2010–2020 framing; these are given as examples of where refugee inflows had visible impact [2]. Other large absolute increases occurred in France, Germany, Italy and the UK over longer stretches, but Pew’s country comparisons emphasize differing scales: absolute numbers are largest in France and Germany, while percentage‑point changes were largest in some smaller or higher‑migration countries [3] [2].
4. Projections vs. observed change — why answers vary
Projection models such as Pew’s 2017 Europe scenarios and Statista reproductions use alternative migration scenarios (zero, medium, high) to forecast 2030–2050 Muslim shares; these projections can suggest large future changes but do not change measured 2010–2016/2020 growth rates [4] [5]. Observed fastest growth between 2010 and mid‑2016 therefore reflects migration spikes and natural increase recorded in that period rather than long‑range projections [1] [3].
5. Competing interpretations and limits of the record
Different outlets and commentaries treat “fastest‑growing” differently: some emphasize absolute numbers (France, Germany, UK lead), others emphasize percentage‑point change (Sweden, Austria notable examples) [3] [2]. Wikipedia summarizations repeat Pew’s 1990/2010 counts but do not add precise country‑by‑country growth rankings for 2010–2025 [6] [7]. Available sources do not mention a single definitive “fastest‑growing country 2010–2025” that is universally agreed — Pew’s country notes point to several leaders depending on the metric used [1] [2].
6. What readers should take away
Use precise metrics: if you mean absolute increase in Muslims, large countries with big immigrant inflows (France, Germany, UK) top the list in raw numbers; if you mean the largest jump in share of population over 2010–2020, Pew highlights Sweden and Austria among the more notable European cases, though no European country rose more than five percentage points in that decade [2] [1]. Pew’s reporting is the closest to authoritative, showing migration plus higher Muslim fertility drove most observed gains in the 2010s [1].
Limitations: detailed, consistent country‑by‑country growth rates covering the entire 2010–2025 span are not supplied in the provided sources; projections beyond mid‑2016 rely on scenario assumptions [1] [4]. For a definitive one‑line answer you must pick a metric — raw numbers, percentage‑point change, or annual rate — and consult Pew’s country tables for that exact interval [1] [2].