Have CDC or Pew Research Center published estimates of fertility by religion for 2020–2025?

1. Pew has published religion‑specific fertility estimates — here’s what they report

Pew’s new Religious Landscape Study (RLS) directly estimates “completed fertility” among U.S. adults aged 40–59 and reports Christians average 2.2 children per respondent, while the religiously unaffiliated and people in non‑Christian religions average 1.8 children each ^[1]. Separately, Pew’s methodology for its religious population projections explicitly uses different total fertility rates for the 2020–2025 input period: 1.9 for Christian women, 1.6 for the religiously unaffiliated and 2.0 for women of other religions — and Pew states those differentials are held constant across that projection window ^[2].

2. CDC publishes national fertility data but not religion‑by‑religion series in cited materials

The CDC and its National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) are repeatedly cited in the pieces you supplied as the authoritative source for national fertility trends — including notes that U.S. fertility has fallen to about 1.7 children per woman in some CDC summaries — but the search results and methodology excerpts do not show the CDC itself publishing fertility by religious affiliation for 2020–2025 ^{[2] [4]}. The CDC’s role in Pew’s discussion is as a benchmark for overall fertility levels, not as a provider of religion‑specific fertility differentials in the linked materials ^[2].

3. How Pew derives its religion differentials — data sources and assumptions

Pew’s projection methodology explains that the fertility inputs for 2020–2025 come from survey sources (like the NSFG) and are adjusted to align with national benchmarks; it notes the NSFG and UN inputs sometimes diverge from Vital Statistics trends reported by the CDC, and that Pew chose particular TFR values for the three broad religious categories and kept those differentials stable across the projection period ^[2]. In short, Pew is explicit about the numeric fertility assumptions it used and the surveys informing them ^[2].

4. Independent analyses and academic literature: context and consistent patterns

Independent researchers and institutes have long documented higher fertility among more religious people, and analyses of NSFG and other survey data show fertility gaps by religiosity and affiliation; some academics and think tanks adjust survey‑based subgroup estimates to match CDC totals because survey TFRs can differ from official Vital Statistics counts ^{[5] [6]}. The Institute for Family Studies, for example, uses NSFG data (adjusted to CDC totals) to show widening fertility gaps between more and less religious Americans ^[5].

5. What’s missing or uncertain in the available reporting

Available sources show Pew’s religion‑specific estimates and the CDC’s overall fertility numbers, but they do not provide a CDC dataset or publication that breaks U.S. fertility explicitly by religion for 2020–2025; that absence means one must rely on survey‑based estimates and projection inputs (Pew’s RLS and methodology) rather than a CDC religious‑stratified Vital Statistics series in the materials provided ^{[2] [1]}. Where survey and administrative totals diverge, Pew and others note they adjust or choose inputs deliberately ^{[2] [5]}.

6. Competing perspectives and implicit agendas to watch

Pew frames its religion fertility differentials as an empirical input to population projections and documents its assumptions transparently ^[2]. Advocacy groups and commentators may emphasize either the higher fertility among religious populations (as evidence of demographic advantage) or the overall national fertility decline (as cause for policy concern) — both narratives draw on overlapping data but differ in emphasis; analytic choices (which surveys to weight, whether to force agreement with CDC totals) shape outcomes and can reflect institutional priorities about projection stability versus current Vital Statistics trends ^{[2] [5]}.

7. What you can do next if you need the primary numbers

If you need a CDC‑produced religion‑by‑religion fertility series, available sources do not mention such a CDC product for 2020–2025 — the most direct route is to use Pew’s RLS completed‑fertility figures and its 2020–2025 TFR inputs ^{[1] [2]}, or to request custom tabulations from survey data (NSFG, CPS fertility supplements) and reconcile them to CDC Vital Statistics as researchers and think tanks commonly do ^{[2] [5]}.