What is the current population of Gaza as of 2024?
Executive summary
The best official Palestinian estimate for Gaza’s population at the end of 2024 is about 2.1 million people, a decline of roughly 160,000 (−6%) from 2023, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) [1]. International datasets published before the war — notably the CIA World Factbook’s 2024 entry — show a higher 2024 projection of roughly 2.14 million, but that figure was based on pre‑October‑2023 growth projections and does not incorporate wartime mortality and displacement documented by PCBS and UN agencies [2] [3] [1].
1. Official Palestinian count: Gaza down to ~2.1 million by end‑2024
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics reported that Gaza’s population “decreased by about 160 thousand Palestinians to reach 2.1 million” at the end of 2024, a 6% fall attributed to deaths and departures during the 2023–24 conflict [1]. PCBS also linked that decline to roughly 100,000 people who left Gaza and tens of thousands of conflict‑related deaths and injuries recorded through December 2024 [1].
2. Pre‑war international projections that differ: CIA World Factbook and related datasets
The CIA World Factbook’s published 2024 population entry implies a Gaza population of about 2.14 million for 2024 — a small increase from earlier years — because it carried forward pre‑October‑2023 growth projections [2] [4]. Fact‑checking organisations and analysts warned that the CIA figure reflects earlier projections and was not updated to account for war‑time mortality and displacement [3].
3. Why figures diverge: projections vs. conflict‑era counts
The divergence stems from methodology and timing: statistical almanacs like the CIA Factbook and some demographic aggregators used projection models created before the October 2023 hostilities; those models assume normal births, deaths and migration patterns [3] [2]. By contrast, PCBS and UN/OCHA ground reports incorporate conflict‑period data — recorded deaths, displacement and cross‑border departures — producing a significantly lower end‑2024 total [1] [5].
4. Independent reporting and UN indicators echo a large population drop
Reporting by international outlets and UN maps/briefs has repeatedly highlighted major population losses and internal displacement in Gaza during 2024; for example, UN OCHA tracked internal displacement and changing population patterns through November 2024, and independent coverage noted that the UN estimated the population had fallen by roughly 200,000 from earlier projections [5] [6]. These accounts align more closely with PCBS’s 2.1 million than with pre‑war projections.
5. Questions of reliability, political framing and agenda
Sources carry implicit agendas and institutional limits. PCBS is the Palestinian statistical authority and bases estimates on civil registration and wartime reporting; it reports declines that many international observers accepted [1]. The CIA and other global databanks publish standardized projections and can lag rapidly changing realities; critics have used the World Factbook projection to question reported Gaza casualties, while fact‑checkers stressed the projection’s pre‑war basis [4] [3]. Readers should note both methodological differences and political uses of the numbers: higher projected populations have been cited by commentators to downplay wartime deaths, while lower wartime counts have been used to document humanitarian impact [3] [1].
6. What measurement limitations remain: missing data and timing
Accurate population measurement in an active conflict is inherently limited. Censuses are impossible, crossings are restricted, and reporting systems are degraded; UN and national bodies rely on registration, hospital and field reports to model totals [5] [1]. The CIA’s 2024 number represents a projection window that predates those disruptions, while PCBS’s figure is a wartime estimate that depends on available registration and reporting in very difficult circumstances [2] [1].
7. Bottom line and how to cite the numbers
If you need a single, current authoritative figure for Gaza as of end‑2024, cite PCBS: approximately 2.1 million people (a 6% decrease from 2023) [1]. If you must reference international pre‑war compilations, note that the CIA World Factbook lists about 2.14 million for 2024 but that this was based on pre‑October‑2023 projections and does not reflect wartime mortality and displacement [2] [3].
Limitations: available sources do not mention a complete post‑December‑2024 population census; OCHA and UN reporting through November 2024 and PCBS end‑2024 briefs are the closest contemporaneous references [5] [1].