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How many Muslims are there in the world today?
Executive Summary
The best available estimates place the global Muslim population at roughly 2.0–2.05 billion people today, representing about one quarter of the world’s population; multiple demographic projects and compilations converge on this range for the early-to-mid 2020s. Estimates vary slightly by methodology and year of measurement, but the consistent finding across sources is that Islam is one of the fastest-growing major religions, concentrated primarily in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of sub‑Saharan Africa [1] [2] [3].
1. Big Number, Clear Consensus — Why most counts land near two billion
Multiple independent demographic exercises and aggregations report a global Muslim population clustered around 2 billion. Pew Research Center’s mid‑decade reviews conclude that Islam numbered about 2.0 billion in 2020 and that growth from 2010 to 2020 added hundreds of millions, a trend summarized in their June 2025 reporting [1]. Contemporary aggregators and country‑by‑country tallies used by media and specialist sites give very similar totals for 2024–2025, with some figures expressed as 2.00–2.05 billion depending on rounding and inclusion criteria [4] [2]. The convergence reflects similar base data (national censuses, surveys, UN population estimates) and comparable demographic methods, producing a narrow range rather than wide disagreement about the magnitude. These sources indicate a robust consensus that the global Muslim population is approximately one quarter of humanity [3] [1].
2. Why counts differ — Methodology, timing and definitions matter
Apparent discrepancies between sources stem from different baselines, projection years, and definitions of religious affiliation. Some compilations report the latest empirical counts (e.g., 2020 census‑based summaries) while others provide near‑real‑time estimates or projections for 2024–2025; these choices create small numerical differences such as 2.00 versus 2.05 billion [1] [2] [4]. Methodological choices also diverge: Pew emphasizes demographic fertility, age structure and conversion rates, while online aggregators may compile national figures and update them with UN population growth models. Definitions vary between self‑identification, household reporting on religion, and administrative records. These technical differences explain modest variance, but do not alter the overall conclusion that the global Muslim population is around two billion [5] [6].
3. Geography and composition — Where most Muslims live and who they are
All sources agree that Asia and Africa together house the majority of the world’s Muslims, with Indonesia, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and large populations across the Middle East and North Africa forming the demographic core [6] [7]. Pew’s analyses highlight that the Muslim population is relatively young and concentrated in higher‑fertility countries, which drives faster growth compared with many Christian populations [1]. Estimates also note the Sunni majority and Shia minority proportions commonly cited — roughly 85–90% Sunni, 10–15% Shia — though precise sectarian breakdowns can vary locally and are harder to measure globally [8]. The demographic picture underscores both population momentum and regional concentration as primary drivers of Islam’s global share [3] [1].
4. Projections and political implications — Growth through mid‑century
Demographers consistently project continued growth: some analyses forecast Islam becoming the world’s largest religion by mid‑century if current trends persist, driven by higher fertility and younger age structures in Muslim‑majority countries [7] [2]. These projections depend on sustained demographic patterns and assumptions about migration and conversion; changes in fertility, policy, or major migration flows could alter trajectories. Analysts and media sometimes highlight such projections to frame geopolitical and social debates about future religious composition, which is why careful attention to methodology and uncertainty ranges is necessary when interpreting headlines that claim definitive shifts by a particular year [5] [4].
5. What to take away — A narrow range, multiple reliable confirmations
The core takeaway is straightforward and well supported: about two billion Muslims worldwide in the early‑to‑mid 2020s, roughly one quarter of global population, with most living in Asia and Africa and with Islam among the fastest‑growing major religions [1] [4] [3]. Minor numeric differences across sources reflect standard demographic variance rather than substantive disagreement. Users seeking the most precise figure for a specific year should consult the underlying national censuses and the methodological notes of major demographic centers like Pew, as those documents explain how counts and projections were constructed [1] [5].