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How many people have left NY in the 5 years?
Executive Summary
Multiple data sets paint different pictures of how many people left New York in the last five years: federal and state migration tallies point to net outflows in the hundreds of thousands, while New York City’s own population estimates show much of that loss reversed by 2024. Reconciling these sources yields a plausible five‑year net out‑migration range of roughly 250,000 to 630,000, depending on definitions and timing [1] [2] [3].
1. What the key claims say — big, divergent headlines that need reconciling
Analysts and agencies make three distinct claims that must be weighed together: a mid‑2024 NYC planning report estimated a cumulative loss of 546,000 residents since April 1, 2020, though that figure may overstate permanent departures once shelter and group‑quarters data are corrected [1]. A Census Bureau–based account reported a 631,104 decline from April 2020 to mid‑2023 and cited 884,000 residents moving to other states since 2020, emphasizing large net domestic outflows [2]. Newer city estimates show a rebound of 87,000 people between July 2023 and July 2024, indicating that pandemic losses were partly temporary and driven by timing and classification issues [3]. These claims differ because they measure different windows, use different residency definitions, and handle group‑quarters and shelter counts differently, making headline numbers not directly comparable without adjustment.
2. Federal counts vs. city tallies — why methodology shifts the answer
The Census Bureau and state/IRS migration tallies primarily track tax returns and residence changes, capturing people who file elsewhere and thus showing large net outflows to other states — figures like 884,000 moves away since 2020 and a mid‑2023 loss of roughly 631,000 reflect that approach [2]. The NYC Department of City Planning, by contrast, adjusts for group‑quarters and shelter populations and calculates mid‑year population estimates; its June 2024 report acknowledged that undercounting in group‑quarters inflates apparent losses and that correcting for shelter increases would offset about two‑thirds of the city’s estimated decline, producing a materially smaller net loss [1]. The city’s May 2025 update showing +87,000 between July 2023 and July 2024 highlights how timing and demographic flows—international immigration, births, and return migration—can reverse earlier net losses [3]. That methodological divergence explains much of the numeric spread.
3. State tax and IRS migration data — tracking who actually filed and left
New York State tax address‑change data and IRS state‑to‑state migration tallies capture a different slice: taxpayers who changed primary addresses out of state. These records show spikes in 2020–2021 with roughly 257,000–274,000 out‑of‑state address changes, then declines in 2022–2023 to around 234,000 and 186,000 respectively, while net outflow of tax returns remained historically high [4]. Separate reporting found New York’s net domestic migration decreased by ~120,917 in the July 2023–July 2024 period, underscoring continued, though smaller, interstate losses at the state level [5]. Long‑run analyses note New York experienced cumulative net domestic losses of over 1.1 million from 2012–2023, with the pandemic exacerbating—but not wholly creating—those trends [6]. Tax data therefore support a substantial multi‑year outflow, but they exclude non‑filing populations and can be skewed by business or estate filings.
4. Reconciling the spread — a defensible range, and why uncertainty persists
Bringing these sources together yields a defensible range rather than a single number. If one emphasizes Census and IRS state‑to‑state moves, aggregated mid‑2020s declines cluster around 600–630 thousand lost by mid‑2023 [2]. If one incorporates NYC planning’s shelter and group‑quarters adjustments and the 2023–2024 rebound, the five‑year net loss plausibly falls nearer 250,000–300,000, concentrated in the pandemic’s early phase [1] [3]. The gap results from measurement choices: net domestic migration vs. total population change, inclusion or exclusion of group‑quarters and shelters, and the five‑year window end date. No single data stream fully captures short‑term displacement, permanent moves, return migration, or international immigration effects, so uncertainty of several hundred thousand is structural, not clerical.
5. What this means for policy and what to watch next
For policymakers and analysts, the practical takeaway is clear: New York experienced large, real outflows during 2020–2022, but much of the demographic story has shifted by 2024 as immigration and return migration reduced net losses [3] [2]. Fiscal and service planning should account for both scenarios: a conservative baseline that assumes lingering population deficits in some localities and an optimistic scenario reflecting renewed growth in 2023–2024. Key data to watch are reconciled mid‑year Census updates, state tax‑filing migrations, and city group‑quarters/shelter counts; together these will narrow the range of uncertainty and show whether the 2024 rebound persists [1] [4] [2].