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Fact check: How many trans gender in the US
Executive Summary
A recent set of analyses converges on an estimate that about 2.8 million people aged 13 and older in the United States identify as transgender, roughly 1.0% of that age group, with approximately 2.1 million adults and 724,000 youth (ages 13–17) included in that total [1] [2] [3]. The estimates come from modeling of federal surveillance data and large surveys and consistently show that transgender-identifying people skew much younger than the general population, while methodological and policy changes threaten future measurement [1] [2] [3].
1. Why 2.8 million appears consistently — the data and methods behind the headline number
Multiple recent reports produced by research groups using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey apply statistical modeling to produce a national estimate of about 2.8 million Americans aged 13+ who identify as transgender [2] [4]. These analyses synthesize survey responses with demographic adjustment and small-area estimation to reach a figure that equals roughly 1.0% of the 13+ population, with 2.1 million adults (0.8% of adults) and 724,000 youth (3.3% of 13–17 year olds) in the breakdown [3]. Methodological choices — which waves of BRFSS and YRBS to include, how to weight nonresponse, and whether to impute for small states — shape state-level and age-group estimates, so the headline number summarizes model outputs rather than a raw population count [1] [4].
2. The age story: younger cohorts drive the higher prevalence numbers
All sources underscore that people who identify as transgender are disproportionately young, with three‑quarters of transgender-identified individuals aged 13 and older under 35 and a substantial share concentrated in the 13–24 brackets [3]. Reports show about 25% of those identifying as transgender are 13–17 and roughly 29% are 18–24, indicating a generational gradient in identity reporting [2] [4]. This age skew affects policy attention and service planning because youth prevalence (3.3%) is markedly higher than adult prevalence (0.8%), which in turn influences debates over health care, schooling, and legal protections for minors versus adults [3] [5].
3. Identity breakdowns — binary and nonbinary composition of the population
When researchers parse adult responders’ gender identities, the adult transgender population is roughly split among transgender women (~33%), transgender men (~34%), and nonbinary adults (~33%), reflecting a diverse gender-identification landscape beyond binary categories [1]. These proportions emerge from survey modules that allow multiple identity selections and require careful coding; differences in question wording across surveys can shift the measured shares of nonbinary versus binary identifications. The near-even split between trans women, trans men, and nonbinary adults signals that policymaking and service provision must account for varied needs across these groups, and it also complicates direct comparisons with older studies that measured only binary trans identities [1] [6].
4. Survey limitations and the large-sample complement: what the 2022 US Trans Survey adds
The 2022 US Trans Survey collected 92,329 responses, with 84,170 adults and 8,159 youth, producing the largest single dataset on transgender experiences in the US but not a direct national head-count estimate [7]. The US Trans Survey provides rich, qualitative and quantitative detail on discrimination, health, and socioeconomic outcomes across states and subgroups, complementing the BRFSS/YRBS-based population estimates by offering depth rather than population representativeness [7]. Taken together, the modeled population estimates and the large nonprobability survey paint a consistent picture: transgender people are numerically substantial, younger, and socioeconomically diverse — but precise population measurement depends on representative federal data collection [7] [6].
5. Why future tracking may be harder — policy and data-collection headwinds
Researchers warn that removal of gender-identity questions from some federal surveys and shifting survey practices will make future national tracking harder, undermining capacity to update prevalence estimates and to monitor trends over time [1] [5]. The August 2025 reports explicitly tie their work to recent availability of BRFSS and YRBS items and caution that policy changes could reduce the number of consistent data sources available [1] [5]. This loss of standard measures would complicate comparisons across years, reduce state-level precision, and limit evaluation of public-health needs — a structural issue that shapes how confidently future counts can be produced and compared [1] [4].