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How many illegal immigrants are there in the united stated
Executive summary
Estimates of how many “illegal” or unauthorized immigrants live in the United States vary widely by method and by the group producing the estimate: leading research centers put the unauthorized population near 11–14 million for the early 2020s, while advocacy and restrictionist groups offer higher figures (for example, FAIR’s 18.6 million) [1] [2] [3]. Recent data and surveys show the unauthorized population rose sharply during 2021–23 to a record level in 2023 and then—according to some survey-based measures—peaked in January 2025 and began declining into mid‑2025 [4] [1] [5].
1. Why “how many” has no single, uncontested answer
Different organizations use different data sources and methods to estimate unauthorized residents. Pew, Migration Policy Institute (MPI), the Center for Migration Studies (CMS) and academic researchers typically use household surveys like the American Community Survey (ACS) or Current Population Survey (CPS) and then subtract estimated legally present immigrants to arrive at an “unauthorized” count; those methods produced conservative estimates in the low‑ to mid‑millions (for example, MPI’s ~11.4 million and Pew’s updated 14 million figure for 2023) [2] [1] [6]. Other groups such as FAIR combine administrative tallies, enforcement metrics and different assumptions about undercounts to generate much higher totals (FAIR’s 18.6 million) [3]. The choice of benchmark data, adjustments for survey undercount, and whether to include people paroled in at the border or recently removed/self‑deported all change the total [1] [7].
2. Recent trend: sharp growth through 2023, then signs of a 2025 decline
Pew reported the unauthorized population grew rapidly between 2021 and 2023—adding millions and reaching a record 14 million in 2023—partly fueled by parole programs and arrivals from multiple world regions [4] [1]. Several sources indicate the overall foreign‑born population crested in January 2025 (about 53.3 million) and then fell by mid‑2025 as surveys showed a decline to roughly 51.9 million by June 2025; analysts note some evidence the unauthorized share may have started falling in 2025 but caution about survey response issues [5] [4] [8]. Pew and CPS‑based adjustments suggest growth into 2024 and a possible decline beginning in 2025, but researchers warn that short‑term CPS changes and response‑rate shifts complicate definitive conclusions [1] [8].
3. Government tallies vs. research center estimates: conflicting narratives
The Department of Homeland Security has publicized large numbers of removals and departures—announcements that claim hundreds of thousands or more leaving in short spans and assert major reductions in the unauthorized population (for example, DHS statements about 1.6 million or over 2 million having left in months during 2025) [9] [10]. Independent researchers and centers, by contrast, emphasize methodological limits in translating enforcement counts into population totals: releases, paroles, “got‑aways,” and survey undercounts are not 1:1 with net population change and require careful adjustment [1] [7]. As CBS News reported, analysts say it’s “too soon to know” exactly how many people have left based solely on these administrative tallies [8].
4. Methodological reasons estimates diverge
Key methodological differences include whether and how researchers adjust for undercount in household surveys, how they estimate the legally present population to subtract, whether they count paroled migrants (who enter legally but temporarily), and how recent enforcement or departures are incorporated. For instance, a CPS‑based reweighting in January 2025 increased some estimates of the post‑1980 foreign‑born and yielded higher unauthorized counts in that snapshot—underscoring sensitivity to weighting and timing [7] [1]. FAIR’s higher number reflects different assumptions and aggregation methods, which proponents argue capture enforcement releases and arrivals that survey methods miss [3].
5. What the numbers imply—and what they don’t
Numbers in the low‑ to mid‑millions (about 11–14 million) and higher estimates (up to about 18.6 million) all indicate millions of people are in the U.S. without standard permanent legal status, but they imply different policy scales and consequences [2] [1] [3]. Researchers caution that short‑term swings in survey response, policy changes (parole programs, revocations), and enforcement actions can produce rapid apparent changes in estimates that may overstate or understate durable population shifts [1] [8].
6. Bottom line for readers
If you seek a consensus, major research centers point to roughly 11–14 million unauthorized immigrants in the recent period, with Pew reporting a 2023 peak of about 14 million and MPI/CMS estimates in the low‑teens; other organizations using different assumptions put the figure higher (FAIR at 18.6 million) [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not mention a single universally accepted current total; analysts urge caution interpreting headline departure or removal figures as direct evidence of net population change without detailed methodological adjustments [8] [1].