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How large is Idaho’s Muslim population in 2025 compared to 2005 and 2015?
Executive summary
Available sources do not provide a single clear figure for Idaho’s Muslim population in 2005, 2015 or 2025; instead they offer percentage estimates, local counts and statewide survey snapshots that must be combined cautiously (not direct time-series totals) [1] [2] [3]. Pew’s Religious Landscape Study gives Idaho’s religion survey rounds (2007, 2014, 2023–24) but the public state page shows large margins of error for Idaho-sized samples, so precise year-to-year counts are not reported there [1].
1. What the strongest statewide data say — survey framework, not exact counts
Pew Research’s Religious Landscape Study is the most authoritative nationwide repeated survey referenced here; it surveyed respondents in 2007, 2014 and 2023–24 and provides Idaho adult religion estimates, but the Idaho state page warns that margins of error for 2023–24 Idaho adults are ±7.1 percentage points and the study reports percentages rather than definitive headcounts for small groups like Muslims in Idaho [1].
2. Published headline estimates and their limits — “about 1%” and derivative totals
Several sources and local reporting converge on a rough rule of thumb: about 1% of Idaho residents identify as Muslim. The Idaho Press reported that Ada County was the only Idaho county showing 1% Muslim in a county-level religion census story [3]. Other web compilations and local estimates translate that 1% into headcounts (for example, roughly 18,000 people, based on 1% of recent state population totals), but those translations are secondary calculations and not direct counts from a primary census in the supplied sources [2] [4].
3. Local community counts suggest growth but not a statewide time series
Local Islamic centers and community organizations in the Treasure Valley and Meridian offer local estimates—e.g., the Islamic Society of Greater Meridian estimates Meridian’s Muslim community at roughly 2,500 people; Boise-area organizations have told reporters the Treasure Valley Muslim population may number in the thousands—indicating community growth since the 2000s but not producing a clear statewide total for 2005, 2015 or 2025 in the cited materials [5] [6] [7].
4. Historical snapshots and journalism showing expansion in the 2000s–2010s
Reporting from earlier decades documents visible community expansion in parts of Idaho: a 2011 Oregonian piece described southeastern Idaho’s Muslim population swelling beyond the capacity of a small mosque and community efforts to raise funds for a larger facility, which supports a narrative of regional growth in the 2000s and 2010s but does not give statewide numeric comparisons for 2005 vs. 2015 [8].
5. Data-model compilations for 2025 exist but vary and rely on assumptions
Aggregated rankings and counts for 2025 appear in compilations such as World Population Review and datapandas.org, which list state-by-state Muslim population figures nationally. These sources are listed among the results provided but do not produce a documented Idaho time series in the supplied snippets; they tend to rely on modeling and secondary data and can differ among themselves [9] [10]. Available sources do not present a consistent Idaho 2005–2015–2025 numeric comparison based on raw survey or census counts.
6. How to interpret the picture responsibly
Given Idaho’s overall population growth (from about 1.3M in 2000 to roughly 1.8M by 2020 in state demographic materials), a constant-share estimate (e.g., 1%) would imply more Muslims in absolute numbers in 2025 than in 2005 even without a changing share, but the supplied sources do not provide a validated year-by-year Muslim-share series for Idaho to confirm that trend precisely [11] [4]. The prudent conclusion from available reporting: Muslim communities in Idaho grew and became more visible in the 2000s–2010s (local mosque expansions and community estimates), and statewide surveys list Muslims as a small minority often approximated near 1%, but exact counts for 2005, 2015 and 2025 are not published in the supplied material [8] [3] [1].
7. Conflicting claims and reporting caveats
Some internet summaries and demographic sites convert percentages into point estimates (e.g., ~18,300 at 1%), while community organizations report local figures (e.g., Meridian ~2,500); these different methods can produce divergent statewide totals. The Pew RLS provides the best repeated-survey framework but its Idaho subsample produces wide margins of error and releases percentages rather than precise headcounts for small groups, so scholars and journalists must avoid treating modeled totals from aggregator sites as equivalent to direct census-style counts [1] [2] [5].
8. If you need a precise comparison, here’s what to do next
To produce defensible 2005–2015–2025 comparisons, request the raw Pew state estimates for each survey round (2007 as proxy for 2005, 2014 for 2015, and 2023–24 for 2025) and any methodology notes on weighting/margin of error; cross-check those with ARDA’s adherent reports and local mosque membership rolls where available. The supplied sources point to Pew as the core repeated instrument and local reporting for qualitative context [1] [4] [5].