How has Idaho's Muslim population changed over the past two decades and what are the drivers of growth or decline?

1. Idaho’s overall population growth: the backdrop that enables religious change

Idaho’s total population expanded strongly in the 2010s and into the early 2020s — from roughly 1.6 million in 2010 to about two million by mid‑2024, and state projections expect continued growth to 2.36 million by 2034 — and that growth is driven mainly by migration rather than natural increase, a trend that creates openings for increases in small religious groups statewide ^{[4] [3] [5]}.

2. What the direct data say (and what they don’t): sparse state‑level Muslim counts

There is no single authoritative two‑decade time series in the supplied reporting that quantifies Idaho’s Muslim population year‑by‑year; national and state religion studies exist (Pew’s Religious Landscape Study covers Idaho snapshots) but the available links and local news reporting provide only point estimates or county‑level notes rather than a continuous twenty‑year trend specifically for Muslims in Idaho ^{[1] [6]}. Available sources do not mention a clear statewide Muslim population count for 2005–2025.

3. Local snapshots: small numbers, visible communities in the Treasure Valley

Local reporting and county‑level summaries indicate Muslim communities are present but small in Idaho. For example, a 2020 census analysis reported Ada County as the only Idaho county listing 1% Muslim, and community reporting highlights mosques and Islamic centers around Meridian and Boise — suggesting localized growth in urban/suburban areas rather than large statewide concentrations ^{[2] [7]}.

4. Likely drivers of growth where it has occurred: migration, urbanization, and community networks

The sources point to three plausible drivers: ^[8] domestic and international migration supply most recent population increases in Idaho (74.1% of 2020–24 growth came from migration), which is the primary mechanism for introducing and expanding minority faiths; ^[9] urban and suburban expansion in Ada, Canyon and Kootenai counties concentrates newcomers where services and jobs cluster; and ^[10] social infrastructure (mosques, Islamic centers) that supports family formation and chain migration — all consistent with broader patterns described in national Muslim population analyses ^{[3] [11] [7] [4]}.

5. Constraints on growth: small base, dispersion, and data limitations

Even with positive net migration, Idaho’s Muslim population likely remains small because the state started from a very low base; small absolute increases yield modest percentage changes. Additionally, the U.S. Census does not ask about religion, complicating precise tracking and producing reliance on surveys and community estimates that can undercount or vary widely ^[12]. Available sources do not provide direct measures of birth rates or conversion rates among Idaho Muslims, so the relative contribution of natural increase versus migration in the Muslim community itself is not documented in the present reporting ^[12].

6. Competing perspectives and uncertainty in estimates

National outlets and compilations produce differing statewide Muslim estimates and note broad uncertainty: some aggregators list state rankings and totals but caution about inaccuracy, while community organizations sometimes offer higher local estimates ^{[13] [14] [15] [7]}. The Idaho Department of Labor and local reporting focus on overall population flows rather than faith groups, so reconstructions of Muslim growth must rely on combining migration and local community reports, acknowledging substantial uncertainty ^{[5] [3] [2]}.

7. What would be needed for a definitive answer

A clear twenty‑year trajectory would require repeated, comparable religious‑identity surveys in Idaho (e.g., Pew state surveys or a religion‑sensitive sample frame) or a comprehensive state‑level religion census; absent that, the best‑supported conclusion from available sources is that Idaho’s overall population boom and migration patterns created conditions for modest growth of Muslim communities concentrated in urban counties, but precise magnitudes and the shares attributable to migration versus natural increase are not provided in current reporting ^{[1] [3] [5]}.

If you want, I can (a) pull together the specific Pew Idaho snapshots and compare their 2007/2014/2023‑24 figures to assemble a clearer timeline (if available in your source set), or (b) map known mosque/Islamic‑center openings in Ada/Canyon counties to infer community growth patterns from infrastructure expansion ^{[1] [7]}.