Fact check: Can data show a correlation between liberal or conservative ideologies and violent behavior?

1. Summary of the results

The analyses provided suggest that there is a correlation between conservative or right-wing ideologies and violent behavior, as shown by empirical data from large datasets such as PIRUS and GTD ^[1]. Right-wing extremists in the U.S. exhibit violence levels similar to Islamist extremists, and on a global scale, right-wing groups are more violent than left-wing groups ^[2]. Additionally, research on polarization and political violence notes that recent spikes in U.S. political violence are overwhelmingly driven by right-wing actors ^[3]. However, other analyses suggest that the relationship between ideology and violence is more nuanced, and that personality traits are stronger predictors of violence than affective polarization ^[3]. Some studies also highlight the importance of considering social characteristics, such as age, income, and racial composition, when examining the correlation between crime and partisanship ^[4]. Official statistics from the federal government show no recent increase in the U.S. violent crime rate, although murder has risen significantly during the pandemic ^[5].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Some analyses emphasize the need to consider local-level variations in crime rates and violent behavior, as the relationship between ideology and violence can flip at the local level ^[4]. Others highlight the importance of evidence-backed policies, such as youth jobs programs and alternative 911 response programs, in reducing crime ^[6]. Additionally, some studies note that partisan blame narratives do little to actually lower crime and make neighborhoods safer ^[6]. The analysis from ^[7] provides indirect evidence of ideological differences in processing, but does not directly measure violent behavior, highlighting the need for more research on the neural basis of ideological differences ^[7]. The article from ^[5] reports that Republican voters are more likely than Democratic voters to see violent crime as a key voting issue, which may influence the perception of the relationship between ideology and violence ^[5].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement may be biased towards implying a simplistic correlation between liberal or conservative ideologies and violent behavior, without considering the nuances and complexities of the relationship ^{[1] [2]}. Some analyses suggest that right-wing actors are more likely to engage in violent behavior, which may be used to perpetuate a narrative that conservative ideologies are inherently more violent ^{[2] [3]}. However, other studies highlight the importance of considering multiple factors, including social characteristics and local-level variations, when examining the correlation between ideology and violence ^{[4] [6]}. The analysis from ^[7] provides a more nuanced perspective on the relationship between ideology and brain responses, but may be misinterpreted as implying a direct correlation between ideology and violence ^[7]. Overall, the original statement may benefit from considering a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to understanding the relationship between ideology and violent behavior, as suggested by the various analyses ^{[1] [2] [4]}.