The percent of immigrants who commit crimes is less than the percent of American citizens committing crimes.
Executive summary
Multiple recent, peer-reviewed and government-linked analyses find that immigrants—both documented and undocumented—have lower arrest, offending and incarceration rates than U.S.-born citizens. For example, a Texas-based study found undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of U.S.-born citizens for violent and drug crimes and at one-quarter the rate for property crimes [1] [2]. A 150-year incarceration analysis shows immigrants are now about 60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born people in recent decades [3] [4].
1. The headline: many studies show immigrants commit crimes at lower rates
Multiple independent research projects and syntheses conclude immigrants are not more criminal than native-born Americans and in many measures are substantially less so: the Texas Department of Public Safety analysis (reported by the National Institute of Justice and Migration Policy) found immigrants of all statuses were arrested at less than half the rate of U.S.-born citizens for violent and drug crimes and one-quarter the rate for property crimes [1] [5]. The Proceedings-of-science/Texas work and summaries from Northwestern and UW–Madison report consistent patterns where U.S.-born citizens have higher arrest rates across a range of felony categories [6] [2].
2. Long view: incarceration data across 150 years weakens the “immigrant crime wave” narrative
A historical analysis covering 1870–2019 assembled by economists shows immigrants historically had similar or lower incarceration rates than U.S.-born men and that gap has widened since about 1960, with immigrants roughly 60% less likely to be incarcerated in recent decades [3] [4]. Stanford-affiliated coverage and the Brennan Center point to the same 150-year evidence as undermining political claims that rising immigration drives crime [7] [8].
3. What “lower” means in practice: concrete ratios and trends
Researchers report explicit multipliers: U.S.-born citizens were over twice as likely as undocumented immigrants to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5 times as likely for drug crimes, and over four times as likely for property crimes in Texas data from 2012–2018 [2]. NIJ’s summary emphasizes undocumented immigrants were arrested at less than half the rate of native-born citizens for violent and drug crimes and a quarter the rate for property crimes [1].
4. Why the data may show immigrants as less crime-prone — competing interpretations
Authors propose explanations including selection effects (people who migrate are a self-selected, often risk-averse group), stronger family and community ties among first-generation immigrants, and socioeconomic shifts that have left some native-born populations—particularly low-education U.S.-born men—more at risk of criminal involvement [7]. The research acknowledges it cannot definitively isolate causes and calls for further work on mechanisms [7].
5. Methodological limits and caveats the studies note
Researchers warn about measurement issues: arrest records can reflect policing practices and bias; immigration status is not recorded uniformly outside places like Texas; and incarceration captures serious convictions but misses unsolved crimes and lighter contacts with police [7] [9]. The Texas study is unusually granular because the state records immigration status with arrests; therefore, its findings are strong for Texas and informative nationally but are not a perfect one-to-one map for every state [2] [5].
6. Political uses and misuses of the evidence
Several sources note political actors still invoke anecdotes of migrant crime to justify policy shifts, despite the broader evidence base showing immigrant presence is not associated with higher crime rates; advocacy groups and researchers warn such rhetoric misframes the data [10] [8]. The American Immigration Council, for instance, uses the evidence to argue against policies that demonize migrants, while coverage of the 150-year study calls out how rhetoric often ignores these long-term trends [10] [7].
7. Bottom line and what reporting does not say
Available sources consistently report that immigrants—documented and undocumented—have lower arrest, offending and incarceration rates than U.S.-born citizens in the examined datasets [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not mention a reputable, broad-based national dataset showing immigrants commit crimes at higher rates than citizens; where variation exists, authors highlight data limits and local differences rather than overturning the general finding [7] [5].
If you want, I can produce a short fact sheet summarizing the Texas ratios, the 150-year incarceration finding, and the main methodological caveats for use in reporting or briefings.