Crime going up or down usa
Executive summary
Nationwide, the weight of recent government and research data points to crime declining from the pandemic-era surge: violent crime and homicides rose sharply in 2020–2021, then fell in 2022 and again in 2023, with preliminary and city-level updates through 2024–2025 showing continued declines in many measures, though not uniformly across places or offense types [1] [2] [3] [4]. Analysts caution that reporting gaps, shifting data systems and localized spikes—especially in some cities and for certain offenses such as motor vehicle theft—complicate a single national verdict [5] [1] [6].
1. The broad national arc: down from a pandemic peak
Multiple sources trace a clear arc: a large jump in homicide and some violent crimes around 2020 was followed by reductions beginning in 2022 and extending into 2023–2025, with FBI and research-group releases showing violent crime rates and murders falling year-over-year after the surge [1] [2] [4]. The Council on Criminal Justice found average homicide and aggravated-assault rates rose into 2020–2021 and then dropped in 2022 and 2023, with further declines reported through 2024 in its city sample [3]. National-level summaries from news outlets and researchers echoed that pattern: 2023 murder counts fell substantially from 2022 and 2024–2025 preliminary figures suggest continued declines [2] [4].
2. Not uniform: geographic and offense-specific variation
The national downward trend masks wide differences by state, city, and crime category: some states and cities still report higher-than-average violent crime (Alaska and New Mexico noted by one ranking), while other places are among the safest in the U.S. [7]. Motor vehicle theft and shoplifting increased even as overall property crime declined nationally between 2022 and 2023, and some localities recorded sharp swings driven by a few high-profile events or localized conditions [2] [6] [3].
3. Data headaches: new systems, missing reports and preliminary counts
Interpreting whether crime is truly “up” or “down” requires caution because the primary government systems are in transition and incomplete—NIBRS replaced the old UCR, many agencies delayed or changed reporting, and coverage gaps in 2021–2022 mean some year-to-year comparisons are imperfect [5] [8]. The FBI’s official consolidated annual report for 2025 was expected later in 2026, and much of what circulated in 2024–25 were preliminary samples from select police departments or city dashboards rather than a single, final national tally [4] [9].
4. How experts frame the trend and its drivers
Researchers and analysts say the post-2021 decline likely reflects a partial reversion from pandemic-era disruptions—social, economic and policing changes that coincided with the spike—rather than a dramatic new era of safety; some warned that sharp drops could be followed by rebounds, and that much of the overall reduction was driven by improvements in a small number of high-homicide jurisdictions [10] [11]. Long-term context still shows crime far below the peaks of the late 1980s–1990s, but short-term volatility since 2020 makes near-term prediction uncertain [1] [5].
5. What can be said, and what remains unresolved
Synthesis: on balance, official and journalistic sources converge that crime in the U.S. is down from the pandemic peak and falling in several key measures (murders, violent crime, many property offenses) through 2023–2025, but gains are uneven—motor vehicle theft and some local spikes persist—and data limitations mean final determinations await complete, nationally representative FBI and BJS releases [2] [6] [5] [8]. Alternative viewpoints remain: some experts emphasize local volatility and the risk of reversal, while some advocacy groups and local police dashboards highlight different pocketed trends; readers should treat national headlines as an aggregate that conceals important local stories [10] [11].