What are the largest Muslim-majority countries or regions within Europe in 2025?
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Executive summary
Russia and Turkey host the largest Muslim populations in Europe in 2025: Russia’s Muslim population is commonly estimated at up to ~16 million and Turkey’s European population (when considering the whole country) dominates European Muslim totals (Turkey overall counted as the largest single-country Muslim population in Europe in some summaries) [1] [2]. Western European states with the biggest Muslim communities in absolute terms include France (roughly 5–7 million), Germany (about 4–6 million) and the UK (about 4–5 million) in recent estimates [3] [2].
1. Who “counts” as Europe’s largest Muslim populations — geography matters
Reports disagree depending on which territories are treated as European: Russia spans Europe and Asia and contains large indigenous Muslim groups (Tatars, Bashkirs, North Caucasus peoples), which leads many sources to list Russia as the single European country with the most Muslims — one estimate placed Russia’s Muslim population near 16 million in 2025 [1]. Other summaries that treat Turkey as part of Europe note Turkey’s overall Muslim population (tens of millions) and therefore place it at the top when the whole country is compared to European states [2]. The choice to include all of Turkey or only its European part changes rankings; available sources do not present a single, universally applied boundary for “Europe” in 2025.
2. Large Western European Muslim communities: France, Germany, UK
Multiple sources put France, Germany and the UK among the largest Western European Muslim populations in 2025. One set of reporting estimated France at about 6–7 million Muslims, Germany at about 5–6 million, and the UK at about 4–5 million [3] [2]. These figures are commonly used in journalistic lists and demographic roundups for 2024–2025 and reflect long-term migration and settlement patterns as well as natural increase [3].
3. The Balkans and Caucasus — historic Muslim-majority regions inside Europe
Indigenous Muslim-majority countries in Europe’s periphery remain significant: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Azerbaijan are consistently identified as Muslim-majority states or regions in Europe, with Albania’s Muslim adherence often cited above 50% and Azerbaijan listed with more than 10 million Muslims in some maps [4] [2]. These populations are the result of centuries-long histories (Ottoman and earlier expansions) rather than recent migration [4].
4. Numbers, projections and scenarios — growth is uneven and contested
Pew and other demographic analysts show Europe’s Muslim population rising from about the mid‑tens of millions toward roughly 46 million by the mid‑2020s in many summaries, representing roughly 6% of Europe’s total population in 2025; projections vary widely by migration and fertility scenarios [4] [3] [5]. Pew’s scenario work demonstrates that different migration flows and fertility differentials produce very different futures, and some widely shared maps have been altered or misrepresented online — so headlines about dramatic near-term change should be treated cautiously [5] [6].
5. Methodological drivers: census data, migration, and fertility
Differences between sources arise because some use national census counts, others use surveys or modeling that incorporate migration flows and fertility assumptions. Pew emphasizes younger age profiles and somewhat higher fertility for many Muslim-origin populations in Europe — a factor in medium-term growth — but also notes the fertility gap is narrowing in many countries [7] [5]. Journalistic lists that rank countries by Muslim numbers often mix census, survey and modeled estimates, producing different rankings [8] [2].
6. Caveats, disagreements and how to read the headlines
Be cautious with single-number claims: fact-checkers have flagged viral maps that present high‑migration scenarios as forecasts and thereby exaggerate near-term change [6]. Some aggregators list Turkey with an 80‑plus million Muslim population and present it as “leading Europe,” but that depends on whether Turkey is counted wholly as a European country [2]. Sources vary on Russia’s exact Muslim share (estimates range) and on Western European country totals; reporters routinely present ranges rather than precise single values [4] [1].
7. Bottom line for 2025: who are the largest players?
In 2025 the broad consensus across the reporting examined is: Russia (largest Muslim population wholly or partially within European borders by headcount in many estimates) and Turkey (if counted in whole) are the biggest Muslim-population contributors on the continent, followed in absolute terms by France, Germany and the United Kingdom; long-standing Muslim-majority European countries in the Balkans and the Caucasus (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Azerbaijan) remain important regional centers [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not offer a single, undisputed ranked list that uses uniform geographic definitions and identical methods.