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What do community surveys (e.g., Muslim Council of Britain, academic studies) estimate for London’s Muslim share in 2024–2025?
Executive Summary
The most reliable baseline for London’s Muslim share in 2024–2025 remains the 2021 census figure showing about 15% of Greater London identifying as Muslim, representing roughly 1.32 million people; community surveys and later summaries referenced by the Muslim Council of Britain and academic overviews do not provide a distinct, higher-resolution 2024–2025 city estimate that supersedes the census baseline [1] [2]. Secondary sources and projections indicate continued growth of the UK Muslim population nationally and regionally, but available materials in the dossier stop short of producing a definitive London share for 2024–2025 and instead point to plausible incremental increases above the 2021 baseline [2] [3].
1. Why the 2021 census remains the anchor—and what it says that matters
The 2021 census recorded 1,318,755 Muslims in Greater London, equating to about 15% of the population, and this official count is the clearest, most granular public dataset available for city-level analysis; subsequent community reports referenced here repeat or rely on that baseline rather than publishing an alternative citywide proportion [1]. Academic syntheses and public summaries in the materials emphasize that Muslim populations in England and Wales rose to roughly 6.5% in 2021, and they underline demographic drivers—higher fertility, younger age profiles, and immigration—that support steady increases in urban concentrations like London, which historically harbors disproportionate shares of national Muslim populations [3] [2]. The dossier includes an older 2001 figure showing 8.5% for London but labels it as outdated and unsuitable for 2024–2025 comparison without adjustment [4].
2. Community surveys and the Muslim Council of Britain: activity but no fresh London percentage
Materials from the Muslim Council of Britain and its 2024–2025 reporting cycle document organizational activity and population commentary, but they do not publish a discrete London share for 2024–2025 that departs from the 2021 census; the MCB reports reiterate national totals and demographic characteristics—such as the youthfulness of Muslim communities—rather than producing a new city-level proportion [5] [6] [7]. The MCB’s summaries and a 2025 census-focused report compile census-based insights and community impacts but stop short of an updated London percentage, suggesting the organization treats official census outputs as the authoritative demographic benchmark and uses its own work for qualitative, not new quantitative, claims [8].
3. Academic estimates and media syntheses: consistent growth but varying baselines
Academic reviews and media syntheses cited here present slightly different national percentage points—one 2024 study cites around 5.86% nationally with London at roughly 15%, while the 2021 census summary gives 6.5% for England and Wales—but these differences reflect methodological choices and publication timing rather than a substantive challenge to London’s 15% city-level figure [2] [3]. Projection statements in the dossier foresee long-term national increases—one forecast seeing Muslim population growth towards 13 million by 2050—yet these forward-looking numbers are projections built on fertility and migration assumptions and do not alter the immediate 2021-to-2024 city snapshot [2] [9]. The sources collectively show agreement about urban concentration and demographic momentum even as exact national percentages vary slightly by dataset.
4. Outdated data and why some claims overstate precision
Several entries in the material rely on older data—most notably the 2001 census-based characterization of London at 8.5% Muslim, which is explicitly outdated and inconsistent with 2021 counts that are nearly double that rate for the capital [4]. Community surveys and organizational reports that do not specify methodology or rely on aggregated national totals without local weighting leave room for misinterpretation if cited as current city estimates [5] [6]. The dossier therefore cautions that claims of precise 2024–2025 London shares beyond the census baseline are unsubstantiated by the materials provided, and any subnational interpolation or projection requires explicit methods and recent local sampling to be credible.
5. Bottom line and reporting caveats for users seeking a single number
Based on the ensemble of sources provided, the defensible statement for London in 2024–2025 is that the Muslim share is approximately 15%, anchored to the 2021 census and supported by consistent community reporting and demographic trends that point to likely modest growth since then but no authoritative new city-level estimate [1] [2] [3]. Users seeking a more current or precise 2024–2025 figure should look for a dedicated London-wide community survey with a published methodology or await small-area population estimates that explicitly update census baselines; absent those, treating 15% as the working figure with documented uncertainty about incremental change is the most empirically defensible approach within the provided sources [5] [8].