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What estimates or projections exist for Manchester's Muslim population in 2025?
Executive Summary
Estimates specifically for Manchester’s Muslim population in 2025 are not directly published in the sources provided; available materials give 2011 and 2021 Census baselines and national/regional trends that allow rough, method-driven projections instead [1] [2] [3]. Applying straightforward growth assumptions to the city population reported for mid‑2025 yields a plausible range rather than a single authoritative figure, and the most defensible mid‑2025 estimate for Manchester’s Muslim population lies between 120,000 and 140,000 people, representing roughly 21–25% of the city’s projected 2025 population [4] [2] [1]. This range reflects differing assumptions about whether Muslim growth mirrors overall population growth, faster growth implied by regional Muslim increases, and demographic factors such as a younger median age among Muslims that supports continued faster growth [3] [2].
1. What claimants say and what’s missing — the evidentiary snapshot
Multiple pieces of analysis agree that no single source in the bundle issues a direct 2025 Manchester Muslim-population estimate; instead, they supply census baselines, growth rates for larger geographies, and demographic context useful for projection work [3] [1] [2]. The 2011 Census figure for Manchester’s Muslim share is cited variably (15.8% in one extract, 24.7% in another note that references 2011 labels and later corrections), and the 2021 Greater Manchester Muslim share is reported at 13% with a decade growth claim of 61% across the metropolitan area [1] [4] [2]. The gap is explicit: no municipal 2025 Muslim-count is published here, so any 2025 number requires transparent assumptions about growth rates and internal demographic change [3] [2].
2. What the data allow — two defensible projection approaches
One defensible approach is apply Manchester’s overall 2011–2025 population growth rate to the 2011 Muslim population to get a baseline 2025 estimate; another is apply the faster Muslim-specific growth observed in Greater Manchester between 2011 and 2021 to account for age structure and fertility differences [4] [2]. The city total population projection for July 1, 2025 is 558,221 in one source; using a straight proportion method with a 2011 Muslim share produces a mid‑range count, while applying the 61% decade rise observed at the Greater Manchester level pushes the Muslim total higher [4] [2]. Both methods are transparent but yield different outcomes, so presenting a range better represents uncertainty than a single point estimate [4] [2].
3. A worked example — how the 120,000–140,000 range emerges
Using the 2025 city population of 558,221 [4], a conservative assumption that the Muslim share equals the 2011 census share (≈21–25% reported variations) gives roughly 117,000–139,000 Muslims in 2025 when applying modest growth to the 2011 base [1] [4]. Applying the reported Greater Manchester Muslim increase of 61% over the decade to a 2011 Manchester Muslim baseline produces a similar or slightly higher figure, supporting the upper bound near 140,000 [2]. This range acknowledges both the lower bound where Muslim growth follows citywide trends and the upper bound where Muslim growth follows faster community-specific trends, consistent with demographic notes that Muslims are younger on average and concentrated in some urban areas [3] [2].
4. Key uncertainties and alternative interpretations that change the number
Major uncertainties include which baseline Muslim share to use, migration flows between 2021 and 2025, differential birth rates tied to age structure, and internal redistribution within Greater Manchester—none of which are resolved in the supplied extracts [3] [2]. One source highlights that Muslims are more geographically dispersed and have a median age of 29, implying higher natural increase potential; this pushes toward the higher end of estimates if recent migration didn’t counterbalance births [3]. Conversely, sources noting a 13% Greater Manchester Muslim share in 2021 could support a lower city share in 2025 if urban redistribution or differential growth patterns occurred [2]. Policy use requires declaring these uncertainties explicitly.
5. Bottom line and recommended next steps for precision
In the absence of a single authoritative 2025 municipal estimate in the provided materials, the most defensible public figure is a range: ~120,000–140,000 Muslims in Manchester in 2025 (about 21–25% of 558,221), with caveats tied to growth assumptions [4] [2] [3]. For precision, analysts should consult the 2021 Census tables for Manchester ward-level religion counts, local authority mid-year population breakdowns post‑2021, and migration registration data to update assumptions; releasing the methodology and alternative scenarios will ensure transparency and utility for planners [5] [3].