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Fact check: How many migrant deaths occurred at the US-Mexico border in 2020 and 2021?
Executive Summary
Official U.S. Border Patrol counts show roughly 247–254 migrant deaths in fiscal year 2020 and 557–568 deaths in fiscal year 2021, while independent trackers report substantially higher totals—around 728 deaths and disappearances in 2021—reflecting different methodologies and coverage. The discrepancy stems from differences in jurisdiction, inclusion rules (deaths vs. disappearances), and reporting timeframes; both sets of figures are accurate within their own definitions and should be cited with those caveats.
1. What sources actually claim — a clear tally and the competing numbers
Multiple official and independent sources report different counts for migrant deaths at the U.S.–Mexico border for 2020 and 2021, but the pattern is consistent: 2021 was deadlier than 2020. U.S. Border Patrol internal tallies place 2020 deaths at about 247 (sometimes reported as 254) and put 2021 deaths between 557 and 568 depending on the dataset cited (USBP fiscal year reporting vs. some summaries) [1] [2] [3]. Independent compilations, such as the IOM’s Missing Migrants Project, count 728 deaths and disappearances in 2021, a larger figure because it includes cross-border disappearances and deaths that fall outside USBP jurisdiction or were reported by NGOs, forensic teams, and media [4]. The variance is not a single “correct” number but multiple valid counts answering different questions.
2. Official Border Patrol counts: what they include and why they matter
Border Patrol’s fiscal-year death tallies are the primary government metric and reflect deaths the agency documents within its areas of responsibility; they are used in official briefings and policy discussions. Those records show about 247 deaths in FY2020 and around 557–568 deaths in FY2021, with heat exposure and drowning prominent causes, and specific sectors like the Rio Grande Valley experiencing the highest numbers [1] [3]. These figures come from USBP’s recordkeeping systems and CBP reporting channels, and they are updated periodically; differences in the lower 2020 figure (247 vs. 254) arise from later reconciliations and reporting cutoffs [1] [3]. Government numbers are conservative in scope but are the standard for assessing agency performance and resource allocation.
3. Independent trackers: broader scope and why their total is larger
Independent projects compile deaths and disappearances using news reports, NGO field reports, forensic records, and cross-border data, producing higher totals because they intentionally capture incidents the Border Patrol may not catalogue—deaths inside Mexico, unidentified remains never logged with USBP, and disappearances suspected to be migration-related. The Missing Migrants Project’s figure of 728 deaths and disappearances for 2021 exemplifies this methodology and highlights a sharp rise from 2020, noting that 2021 was the deadliest year since at least 2014 by their count [4]. These compilations expose mortality beyond federal custody and reveal challenges in identification and cross-border coordination, but they are not interchangeable with USBP fiscal counts when used for official comparisons [4].
4. Why the numbers diverge — jurisdiction, definition, and timing explained
The core reasons for divergent counts are definitional scope, jurisdictional boundaries, and reporting cutoffs. USBP numbers are limited to deaths the agency documents in its operational sectors and often excludes deaths on Mexican territory or those handled entirely by Mexican authorities; they follow strict fiscal-year accounting and internal verification [1] [5]. Independent datasets include disappearances and deaths reported by third parties, sometimes months later, and count fatalities on migratory routes irrespective of which authority recorded them; this produces larger, more inclusive totals [4]. Reporting timing leads to post-hoc adjustments—USBP figures can be revised; independent trackers may retroactively add cases as information surfaces—so contemporaneous comparisons must state definitions explicitly [3] [6].
5. What’s often missing from the headline numbers — context the public should know
Headlines citing a single number omit cause breakdowns, sectoral concentrations, identification rates, and demographic details, which shape policy responses. Heat exposure, dehydration, and drownings account for a large share of deaths, with the Rio Grande Valley and desert sectors repeatedly showing higher mortality, yet many deceased remain unidentified, complicating family tracing and legal responsibility [3] [2]. CBP’s internal reports on CBP-related deaths (including in-custody vs. not in-custody) provide further nuance—FY2021 CBP-related deaths numbered 151 in one agency report, illustrating that not all migrant-death tallies are CBP-related incidents and that different reporting streams serve different oversight functions [5] [6].
6. Bottom line — how to cite the numbers responsibly
When citing migrant deaths at the U.S.–Mexico border for 2020 and 2021, specify the dataset: USBP fiscal counts: ~247 [7] and ~557–568 [8]; Missing Migrants Project: ~728 deaths/disappearances in 2021, reflecting broader inclusion [1] [3] [4]. State the definitions and limitations: USBP figures track agency-documented deaths within sectors and fiscal years, while independent trackers include disappearances and cross-border fatalities. Both perspectives are factual and complementary; rigorous analysis and policy-making require presenting both sets of numbers and the methodological differences that produce the gap [2] [6].