What are the latest 2025 estimates for Minnesota's Somali population by county and city?
Executive summary
Recent 2024–2025 estimates for Minnesota’s Somali population vary widely by source: several news outlets and data sites cite roughly 107,000 people of Somali descent in Minnesota (American Community Survey ancestry-based estimate) while other compilations using ACS place the state total between about 61,000 and 64,000, with city- and county-level breakdowns putting the largest concentrations in Minneapolis and Hennepin County (Minneapolis ~19,870–33,521; Hennepin County ~28,053) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Conflicting headline totals: two competing ACS-based pictures
Media outlets and data aggregators report two different ACS-derived totals for Somalis in Minnesota: several news reports cite the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) ancestry estimate of roughly 107,000 people of Somali descent in Minnesota in 2024, a figure used by KTTC and Fox9 in December 2025 [1] [2]. By contrast, private data sites that compile ACS microdata and present city/county rankings (Neilsberg) list a statewide Somali total nearer to 61,000–64,000 in 2025 and distribute that population across counties and cities [3] [4]. Both sets of numbers claim ACS roots; they reflect different choices about ancestry vs. birthplace, year pooled, or variable definitions [3] [4] [2].
2. Where the largest communities are located: Minneapolis, St. Paul, Hennepin County
Across sources there is agreement on the geographic concentration: Minneapolis and the Twin Cities metro hold the largest Somali populations. Neilsberg lists Minneapolis at about 19,870 Somalis, St. Paul 6,669, and St. Cloud 3,740; its county ranking shows Hennepin County containing the largest Somali community (~28,053), followed by Ramsey and Dakota counties [3] [4]. Fox9 and other outlets using the larger ACS ancestry count report larger city figures — for example, Minneapolis estimates as high as ~33,521 — but still place the core community in the Twin Cities [2].
3. Why totals diverge: ancestry vs. place-of-birth and methodological choices
Sources point to two main reasons for the discrepancy. One is the ACS variable used: ancestry (people who identify Somali ancestry) produces a larger count than country-of-birth (people born in Somalia) because it includes U.S.-born descendants [1] [2]. The second is differing pooling periods, rounding and privacy suppression in small places, and private compilations’ processing choices; Neilsberg explicitly warns ACS estimates are sample-based, rounded, and sometimes suppressed for small counts [3] [4].
4. Citizenship and nativity context: majority U.S.-born or naturalized in many accounts
Reporting based on ACS and state demographer analysis shows a growing U.S.-born and naturalized Somali population in Minnesota: one line of reporting says almost 58% of Minnesota’s Somalis were born in the U.S. and a large majority of foreign-born Somalis are naturalized; others note that most Somalis in Minnesota are now citizens according to ACS-derived estimates [1] [5] [6]. These citizenship and nativity patterns help explain why ancestry counts exceed foreign-born counts [1] [5].
5. Range of independent estimates and uncertainty acknowledged by sources
Historical and journalistic sources document a broad range of past estimates—from state demographer ranges in the tens of thousands to community estimates as high as 80,000–100,000—underscoring that precise counts are sensitive to definitions and methodology [7] [8]. Several outlets explicitly state that ACS sampling error and differing definitions mean totals could be off by tens of thousands and that no single “precise” number exists in public reporting [5] [3].
6. What the available sources do not provide
Available sources do not provide a single, authoritative county-and-city table labeled “2025 official ACS breakdown by county and city” that reconciles the 61k/64k and 107k totals into one harmonized dataset; they also do not supply margin-of-error figures for each city/county cell in the public articles cited here [3] [4] [1].
7. How to interpret these figures for policy or reporting
Use two-tier reporting: cite the larger ACS ancestry total (~107,000) when discussing the overall population of Somali descent in Minnesota, and use the lower Neilsberg/ACS-derived city/county breakdown (~61k–64k statewide; Minneapolis ~19,870; Hennepin ~28,053) when you need location-level estimates — but always disclose the underlying definition (ancestry vs. birthplace) and sampling limitations presented by the source [1] [3] [4] [2].
Readers should be aware that competing datasets and legitimate methodological choices drive the discrepancies in headline totals; the available reporting makes clear the Twin Cities remain the undisputed center of Minnesota’s Somali community regardless of which ACS-derived total one cites [1] [3] [4] [2].