How has the size of Minnesota's Somali population changed from 2005 to 2025?
Executive summary
Minnesota’s Somali population rose markedly between 2005 and the mid‑2020s, driven by refugee admissions, secondary migration within the U.S., and natural increase; however, exact counts for 2024–2025 vary widely across reputable sources because of differing definitions (ancestry vs. foreign‑born vs. Somali‑speaking households) and data methods (Census ACS estimates vs. state records) [1] [2] [3]. Conservative estimates place Minnesota’s Somali‑ancestry population in the 60,000–75,000 range by 2024–2025, while other reporting using broader ancestry or survey definitions puts the figure as high as roughly 94,000–107,000 — underscoring growth but also uncertainty [4] [5] [1] [2].
1. Growth from the 2000s through 2010: a clear upward trajectory
Scholarly and government summaries trace a near‑zero Somali presence in Minnesota in 1990 to a rapid increase through the 1990s and 2000s, with the Somali‑ancestry population roughly tripling by 2010, driven largely by refugee resettlement and early labor market opportunities such as meatpacking jobs that attracted newcomers [1] [6]. The historical record shows Minnesota received thousands of Somali refugees in decades spanning 1979–2017, and the Minnesota Department of Human Services recorded 13,582 Somali refugees arriving between 2005 and 2018, which confirms that the 2005–2010 window was part of a sustained inflow, even if a precise 2005 headcount is not specified in the provided sources [1].
2. 2010s to mid‑2020s: continued increase, secondary migration and births matter
After 2010, growth continued through a mix of new admissions, secondary moves from other U.S. states, and domestic births; by 2018 there were roughly 43,000 Minnesota residents born in Somalia and about 94,000 Minnesotans speaking Somali at home, suggesting a substantial Somali‑ancestry population that includes U.S.‑born children and longer‑term residents [1]. The Minnesota pattern includes secondary migration—people moving into Minnesota from other U.S. states—which state summaries say has been a large source of population growth in the 2010s as much as new international arrivals [1].
3. Divergent 2024–2025 estimates: why numbers range from ~61K to ~107K
Recent reporting offers a wide span: KTTC cites Census Bureau‑derived ACS data indicating approximately 107,000 people of Somali descent in Minnesota in 2024 [2], whereas WorldPopulationReview and Neilsberg publication estimates put the 2025 Somali population in Minnesota nearer to 61,000–64,000 [3] [4], and a CIS analysis reported “over 75,000” Somalis in Minnesota in 2024 [5]. This divergence stems from differences in definitions (people of Somali descent or ancestry vs. Somali‑born residents vs. Somali‑speaking households), the years and survey microdata used, and the known margins of error in ACS estimates for relatively small, concentrated populations [2] [4] [1].
4. What the data reliably show despite discrepancies
All sources agree on the central story: Minnesota hosts the largest Somali community in the U.S. and that the population grew substantially since the early 2000s; state arrival records, language‑at‑home counts, and multiple independent estimates together document a clear rise from the 2005 era to the mid‑2020s even if the precise end‑point number is contested [7] [1] [6]. The Minnesota Department of Human Services and public reporting also record ongoing arrivals (for example, 1,267 arrivals from Somalia in 2024), underscoring that growth did not stop before the mid‑2020s [1].
5. Sources, rival narratives and what to watch next
The variation in headline figures has political consequences, with outlets and advocacy groups emphasizing different totals to support competing narratives about community size and policy impact — for example, outlets using broader ancestry counts produce higher totals that opponents of immigration cite as reason for enforcement, while other analyses highlight socioeconomic indicators alongside headcounts [2] [5]. Absent a single, universally accepted annual tally, the best reading is a range: Minnesota’s Somali population clearly expanded substantially between 2005 and 2025, with plausible mid‑2020s estimates roughly between the low tens of thousands in earlier decades and between about 60,000 and 107,000 by 2024–2025 depending on method and definition [2] [3] [4] [5].