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What was the total fertility rate for Muslim Americans in 2020 and 2021?
Executive summary
There is no authoritative estimate of the total fertility rate (TFR) specifically for Muslim Americans for 2020 or 2021 because U.S. fertility statistics—such as CDC/NCHS vital statistics—do not record religion, and major surveys with religious identifiers do not provide robust TFR estimates for small subgroups in those years. Claims about higher Muslim fertility typically refer to global or immigrant-group patterns, not a measured U.S. TFR for 2020–21. Available sources therefore explain what can and cannot be measured: global or national fertility trends, demographic portraits of U.S. Muslims, and why direct TFR calculation for Muslim Americans in 2020–21 is not possible with existing public data [1] [2] [3].
1. Why you can’t find a U.S. Muslim-specific TFR for 2020–21 — the data gap that matters
U.S. official fertility data come from vital records and surveys that do not record religion on birth certificates or in routine birth statistics, so the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Reports do not include a breakdown by religion; they report by race, ethnicity and maternal education instead [1]. Large public datasets that track fertility at the national level—like the World Bank’s total fertility rate series or CDC natality tables—are therefore impossible to filter by religion without linkage to separate survey data [4] [1]. Independent surveys that do ask religion—such as Pew Research studies or targeted demographic reports—often have sample sizes too small to produce a reliable TFR for a religious minority across single years, and they report descriptive fertility indicators (number of children, childrearing rates) rather than a formal TFR estimate [3] [5]. The methodological constraints explain the absence of a published 2020 or 2021 TFR for Muslim Americans.
2. What the reputable sources do provide — patterns and proxies, not a TFR number
Pew Research and similar analyses describe higher-than-average childbearing and younger age profiles among U.S. Muslims, noting that Muslim adults are more likely than many other religious groups to be raising children and to be in childbearing ages, which implies higher fertility but stops short of a TFR estimate [5]. Global reporting highlights that Muslims worldwide had higher fertility rates in recent decades, contributing to population growth—an observation journalists and advocates sometimes generalize to Muslim populations in non-Muslim-majority countries, including the U.S. [2]. The World Bank and CDC provide clear national-level TFRs for countries and for the U.S. overall, but they cannot attribute those births to religious groups, so they serve only as background context [4] [1]. These sources allow informed inference but not a concrete TFR value for U.S. Muslims in 2020–21.
3. Recent studies and reports that people cite — what they actually say
A 2017 Pew demographic portrait of Muslim Americans outlines family size, age structure and fertility-related behaviors, documenting that Muslim households are more likely to include children and younger adults, but it does not report a total fertility rate for 2020–21 and did not attempt one for earlier single years [3]. More recent Pew pieces (2024–2025) reiterate global and U.S. patterns—Muslims globally have driven population growth due to relatively higher fertility and demography—but these analyses reference broader timeframes and projections rather than a measured U.S. TFR for the two years in question [2] [6]. The CDC’s NCHS reports for 2019–2021 offer fertility measures by race/ethnicity and education, reinforcing the limitation: religion is not included as a classification variable [1] [7]. This distinction is crucial when media or advocates assert a specific Muslim-American TFR for 2020–21 without citing a source.
4. Divergent interpretations and possible agendas — why claims should be read carefully
Advocates or commentators who state a specific TFR for Muslim Americans often draw on global Muslim fertility trends, immigrant fertility patterns, or small-sample survey snapshots, which can mislead if presented as a measured national TFR. Pro-immigrant or community-focused outlets emphasize higher childbearing as a reason for population growth and political influence, while critics may invoke the same patterns to suggest demographic threat—both rely on extrapolation from general patterns rather than a documented U.S. TFR for 2020–21 [2] [6]. Academic and public-health sources avoid assigning a precise TFR because of data limits; this restraint indicates that definitive numeric claims for 2020 and 2021 lack empirical backing [1] [3]. Recognizing these motives helps readers distinguish between evidence-based findings and rhetorical uses.
5. Practical paths to an estimate and what researchers would need to do
Estimating a TFR for Muslim Americans would require linking birth records with religious identification from large, representative surveys or administrative data—an approach limited by privacy, survey sample size, and inconsistent religious questions. Alternatively, multi-year pooling of national surveys that include religion could produce model-based TFR estimates for Muslim Americans, but such estimates would come with wide uncertainty and would need transparent methodology and peer review [4] [5]. Until a dedicated study does this work and publishes a vetted TFR for 2020–21, the responsible conclusion is that no authoritative TFR exists for Muslim Americans in those years; available sources allow contextual inference but not a precise, defensible number [1] [3].