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How does the percentage of muslim immigrants in England compare to other European countries?
Executive Summary
England’s Muslim share of the population is about 6.7% based on the 2021 UK census; that places England/the UK in the mid-range among European countries today, lower than several Muslim-majority or Eurasian states but comparable to—or higher than—many West European democracies. Cross-country comparison depends heavily on definitions (Muslim population vs. Muslim immigrants) and on whether you use recent census counts or migration-projection models, which yield different rankings and future paths [1] [2] [3].
1. What the original claims actually said — a short fact pull that matters
The original analyses assert three core points: first, England’s Muslim population is cited as roughly 6.7% in 2021; second, the UK is described as having a relatively high Muslim share compared with several Western European states but far lower than countries with Muslim majorities or large historic Muslim populations; and third, projections foresee a rising Muslim share by mid-century under medium migration scenarios. Those claims synthesize census figures, contemporary academic projections, and broad continental comparisons; the immediate factual anchor is the 2021 UK census figure for England/Wales referenced in the material [1] [2] [3]. The analyses conflate “Muslim population” and “Muslim immigrants” at times, a distinction that changes interpretation and ranking among countries [4] [5].
2. What recent national data show — England and the UK in 2021
The 2021 UK census and associated ONS material indicate around 6–7% of the population in England and Wales identified as Muslim, reflecting decades of migration from South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa and natural growth within established communities. The ONS also highlights the role of generational status and economic activity among religious groups, confirming that a substantial share of Britain’s Muslim population are either foreign-born or descendants of immigrants, though precise immigrant-only percentages require migration-specific records [1] [2] [5]. This census-backed baseline is the most reliable recent snapshot for England; it is the proper comparator for other countries’ census data rather than extrapolations from migration flows alone [4].
3. Europe-wide comparisons — where England sits relative to peers
Using comparable country censuses and widely cited projections, England/the UK sits in the mid-range across Europe: lower than Muslim-majority states (Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kosovo) and certain Balkan cases, and similar to or higher than many Western European democracies such as France, Germany, Austria, Sweden, and Belgium when considering current percentages. The sources note broad variance across Europe driven by historical Muslim populations, colonial ties, and recent refugee and labor migration flows; rankings vary by whether you count all Muslims or only foreign-born Muslims, and by which year’s data you use [1] [6] [3]. Comparative snapshots from 2016–2024 show many Western European countries clustered in the single-digit to low-double-digit percentages, with the UK often toward the higher end of that cluster but not an outlier [6] [3].
4. Projections and drivers — why percentages are expected to change
Demographic projections produced in recent years show the Muslim share of the UK population could rise substantially by 2050 under medium- and high-migration scenarios, with one mid-2024 model projecting the UK population could approach twice its current Muslim share by mid-century if migration and fertility assumptions hold. Drivers include continued international migration, differential fertility rates across populations, and the age structure of Muslim communities, which are often younger than national averages. The same projection frameworks apply to Germany, Sweden, and other destinations, where future shares depend more on migration policy and refugee flows than fixed demographic momentum [3] [6].
5. Data limitations and why comparisons can mislead
Cross-country comparison is complicated by inconsistent measurement: some countries collect religion in the census, others do not; some report all persons identifying as Muslim, others report foreign-born Muslims or use registry-based proxies. Migration datasets frequently do not record religion, so researchers must combine census data, surveys, and projection models, introducing methodological divergence. The ONS explicitly warns about using migration records to infer religion and recommends census sources for religious population estimates; many continental studies use different base years and definitions, which can yield contradictory rankings if not harmonized [4] [5].
6. Bottom line — a balanced conclusion and what to watch next
The best short answer: England’s Muslim population is roughly 6–7% today, placing it in the middle among European countries, higher than several Western peers but far below Muslim-majority states; projections indicate potential growth to higher shares by 2050 under plausible migration scenarios. For trustworthy future comparisons, rely on harmonized census data where available and treat migration-based projections as scenario-based forecasts rather than fixed outcomes. Monitor updated national censuses and the 2024 projection literature for revisions, since small definitional shifts or new migration shocks can change rankings substantially [1] [3] [4].