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What was the estimated Muslim population in England in the 2021 Census and how has it grown since?
Executive summary
The 2021 Census shows about 3.9 million people in England and Wales identified as Muslim — roughly 6.5% of the population — up from about 2.7 million (4.9%) in 2011, an increase of roughly 1.16 million or ~44% in that decade [1] [2]. Sources differ slightly on the precise England-only tally (3.80m vs 3.87–3.9m) depending on reporting and whether England-only or England & Wales totals are cited; the common headline across reporting is a substantial rise since 2011 [3] [4] [1].
1. Census headline: millions, not hundreds of thousands
The Office for National Statistics-backed reporting and civil society analysis put the Muslim population in England and Wales at about 3.87–3.9 million in 2021, which is presented as 6.5% of the combined England & Wales population of about 59.6 million [1] [2]. Wikipedia entries summarising the census give slightly different sub-totals for England alone (for example 3,801,186 or 6.7% in one entry), reflecting variations in how sources extract or present England-only versus England & Wales figures [3] [4].
2. How fast it has grown — numbers and rates
Compared with the 2011 Census figure of roughly 2.7 million (4.9% of England & Wales), the Muslim population increased by around 1.16 million people between 2011 and 2021 — commonly characterised as a 44% rise and accounting for about a third of the total population increase in England & Wales over the decade [1] [2]. Multiple outlets repeat the same arithmetic: Muslim numbers rose from about 2.7m to about 3.9m, while the overall population grew by about 3.52m [2].
3. Why the increase? Age, births and migration
Analysts attribute the increase to a combination of factors emphasised in the census commentary: a younger age profile among Muslims (more in childbearing ages), higher birth rates, and migration from countries affected by conflict alongside domestic births; the Muslim Council of Britain and other analysts highlight youth demographics and migration as drivers [2] [1]. Muslim Census and MCB commentary stress the community’s younger profile — for example, a high share under age 16 — as an important structural factor in growth [5] [6].
4. Geography and concentration: cities and deprivation
The growth is geographically concentrated: London and major cities (Birmingham, Bradford, Manchester, Leicester, Tower Hamlets, Newham) contain large Muslim populations, and analyses note increasing dispersion but persistent urban concentration [3] [7]. The Muslim Council of Britain’s analysis links the population increase to socioeconomic geography, noting a high share of Muslims live in more deprived local authority areas — the MCB estimates about 40% live in the most deprived fifth of districts [1] [2] [7].
5. Reporting differences and why figures vary
Different sources quote slightly different totals (3.80m, 3.868m, 3.87m, 3.9m) because some cite England-only, some England & Wales, and some round to one decimal place; secondary summaries (Wikipedia entries, community analyses, media) sometimes diverge in labelling which territory they mean [4] [3] [1]. The religion question in the census was voluntary and answered by about 94% of the population; commentators note that non-response and question framing can affect exact totals, a caveat raised in community and ONS-adjacent commentary [1] [5].
6. Competing perspectives and implications
Advocates such as the Muslim Council of Britain frame the numbers as evidence of a youthful, growing community that requires policy attention on education, housing and inequality [1] [6]. Media outlets and commentators emphasise broader societal change — Christianity’s decline below 50% and “minority-majority” localities such as Leicester and Birmingham — as context for the rise in non-Christian religions including Islam [8]. Some reporting stresses migration drivers, while community analyses emphasise births and younger age structure; both explanations are present in the sources [2] [5].
7. What the sources don’t settle
Available sources do not mention precise ONS raw tables for England-only broken down by every local authority here, nor do they settle methodological questions about how much of the rise is attributable to international migration versus natural increase in an exact percent split — the summaries point to both factors without uniform quantification [2] [1]. When precise England-only vs England & Wales distinctions matter, users should prefer direct ONS tables or the published MCB breakdowns cited above [1] [2].
Conclusion: Census-era consensus across government releases, community analysts and mainstream media is that there were about 3.9 million Muslims in England & Wales in 2021 (6.5%), up roughly 1.16 million from 2011 — a rapid decade-on-decade increase driven by youth demographics, births and migration, concentrated in major cities and linked to socioeconomic patterns noted by the Muslim Council of Britain [1] [2] [8]. For exact England-only counts or breakdowns by local authority, consult ONS primary tables referenced in the MCB and ONS releases [1] [2].