How does the Muslim population in England compare to other European countries in 2025?
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Executive summary
England’s Muslim population in 2025 remains one of the larger Muslim communities in Western Europe by both share and absolute numbers, centred on a roughly 6–6.5% share of the population derived from the 2021 census and later summaries [1] [2], while France and Germany retain larger absolute Muslim populations in most published estimates [3]. Forecasts paint divergent futures — some projection models scale the UK’s Muslim share well above present levels by mid‑century [4] — but those long‑range projections rely on assumptions about migration and fertility that are contested and not directly observable in 2025 [4] [3].
1. England’s baseline in context: size and share
Official 2021 census figures for England and Wales counted 3,868,133 Muslims, about 6.5% of the population, a figure echoed and rounded to 6% in community summaries used in 2025 analyses [1] [2], which makes England among the European states with a clearly visible Muslim minority but not the largest in absolute terms.
2. How England ranks against France, Germany and others by headcount
Most comparative snapshots in 2025 place France and Germany above the UK on absolute numbers — estimates in public sources give France roughly 6–7 million Muslims (around 9–10% of the population) and Germany about 5–6 million (6–7%), with the UK commonly cited in a 4–5 million range (around 6–7%) in non‑official compilations [3]; those secondary sources align with census‑based rankings but should be read as estimates rather than new national counts.
3. Share matters: percentage vs absolute numbers
England’s roughly 6–6.5% Muslim share [1] [2] places it above many European countries where Muslim populations remain below 5%, but below countries where migration histories and colonial links produced higher shares, notably France (around 9–10% in some estimates) and certain smaller Western European states where concentrations can be locally higher [3]. Absolute counts matter for political and social visibility; percentage shares matter for representation and public debate — England scores high on both compared with much of continental Europe, though not at the top.
4. Internal geography and socio‑economic profile that differentiate England
England’s Muslim population is highly concentrated in urban and often deprived areas: MCB’s 2025 census summary reports that a large share live in the most deprived neighbourhoods and that many communities cluster in high‑unemployment localities, an internal diversity that shapes experience and policy demands distinct from national averages [2]. Those internal patterns amplify the community’s political and social profile in English cities more than raw national percentages alone would suggest [2].
5. Attitudes and integration indicators that complicate simple comparisons
Beyond headcounts, public‑opinion and social indicators in UK studies show complex dynamics: polling cited in 2025 research found British Muslims reporting high levels of British identity and belonging alongside concerns about speaking openly on Islamic topics, illustrating a mixed picture of integration and perceived constraint [1]. These qualitative attributes mean England’s Muslim population cannot be reduced to numbers alone when contrasted with continental peers [1].
6. Projections and the cautionary note
Longer‑term projections produced by demographic analysts suggest large increases by 2050 in some scenarios — one widely circulated estimate places the UK’s Muslim share much higher mid‑century — but these projections depend heavily on migration flows and fertility assumptions and should not be treated as concrete 2025 realities [4] [3]. Some outlets projecting dramatic changes are not peer‑reviewed demography sources and mix modelling with speculative interpretation, which requires skepticism [3].
7. What the available sources do and do not tell us
The strongest, most grounded data for England come from the 2021 census and the MCB’s 2025 census summary, which give the clearest picture of current size, distribution and socio‑economic conditions [1] [2]; comparisons to continental countries often rely on secondary estimates and projection models that vary by method and credibility [3] [4]. Where claims exceed what those sources cover — for example, precise 2025 headcounts for every European state — reporting is necessarily tentative and should be flagged as estimate‑based [3].