Keep Factually independent

Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.

Loading...Time left: ...
Loading...Goal: $500

Fact check: What is the projected Muslim population in England by 2030?

Checked on October 15, 2025

Executive Summary

Existing material in the supplied analyses does not offer a firm numeric projection of the Muslim population in England by 2030; instead, sources describe recent growth and longer-term projections for the UK or Europe without a specific 2030 England figure. The best-supported facts are that Muslims comprised 6.5% of Britain in 2021 and that some analysts project continued growth to double-digit shares by mid-century under particular scenarios [1] [2] [3].

1. Why the direct 2030 number is missing — and what the data actually say about near-term trends

None of the supplied documents produces a clear projection labeled “Muslim population in England by 2030,” so there is no direct, source-backed numeric answer in the material provided. The closest empirical anchor is the 2021 census showing Muslims at 6.5% of Britain, a 43% increase over the previous decade, which demonstrates a recent upward trajectory [1]. Longer-horizon work cited in the corpus focuses on the UK as a whole or on Europe and offers medium- and long-term scenarios rather than a specific 2030 England estimate, leaving a near-term gap in the supplied evidence [2] [3].

2. Long-range projections that influence expectations for 2030 — cautious interpretation required

A 2022 projection noted in the materials suggests the UK Muslim share could rise from 7% in 2025 to 11.2% by 2050, with higher shares later in the century; this model implies continued growth but does not validate a precise 2030 figure for England [2]. These scenario-based projections depend heavily on fertility, migration and identity-change assumptions; they inform expectations that the Muslim share will be higher in 2030 than in 2021 but do not quantify by how much for England specifically. Relying on mid-century projections to infer 2030 percentages risks overstating precision [2] [3].

3. Geographic and definitional mismatches: England vs Britain vs UK confound simple answers

The supplied sources sometimes address England and Wales, sometimes the UK or Britain, and sometimes Europe, creating comparability problems. The 2021 census figure cited refers to Britain as a whole [1]; another report addresses the ethnic makeup of older populations in England and Wales over decades but does not isolate Muslim projections for 2030 [4]. Because religious identity and population distribution vary across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, using Britain- or UK-level percentages to infer England-only figures introduces additional uncertainty [4] [1].

4. Recent census and trend evidence: the best short-run guide we have

The most concrete near-term evidence in the materials is the 2021 census showing a rapid increase in the Muslim population over the prior decade (a 43% rise) and a 6.5% share for Britain, which serves as the strongest empirical baseline for projecting 2030 outcomes [1]. If that growth rate were to continue, the Muslim share would increase by 2030, but census-period growth is influenced by migration flows, differential fertility, conversion and age structures; none of these drivers are modeled explicitly in the supplied documents for an England-2030 estimate, so extrapolation remains speculative without additional demographic modelling [1] [4].

5. Scholarly and policy reports in the pool — strengths and limits of their methods

The corpus includes an academic projection that outlines multiple scenarios to 2100 and a demographic study of ethnic ageing, both useful for context but not designed to answer “England in 2030” with a single number [2] [4]. Scenario work provides useful bounding cases and highlights that migration assumptions are decisive; ethnic-ageing studies show cohort effects that shape near-term shares among older populations. These complementary approaches indicate credible directional change, but their temporal focus and geographic scope prevent a definitive 2030 England percentage [2] [4].

6. What a responsible, evidence-based answer would require next

To produce a defensible England-2030 projection you would need: recent England-specific population denominators, age-specific fertility by religion or ethnicity, migration flows by religion or origin, and consistent identity-change assumptions; none of these elements are present in the supplied analyses in a form that yields a single 2030 estimate [4] [2]. Analysts must also reconcile differences between census-based baselines and scenario model inputs. Without that targeted modelling, any 2030 number for England would be an extrapolation rather than a sourced projection [1] [4].

7. Bottom line: what we can say, and where uncertainty remains

Based on the supplied materials, the defensible statement is that the Muslim population in Britain grew substantially between 2011 and 2021 (to 6.5%) and is expected to continue rising, with scenario work indicating higher shares by mid-century; however, the corpus does not provide a direct, evidence-backed projection for the Muslim population in England specifically by 2030 [1] [2] [4]. Any precise England-2030 figure would require fresh, England-focused demographic modelling that reconciles census baselines with migration and fertility assumptions absent from the provided sources [4] [2].

Want to dive deeper?
What are the current Muslim population demographics in England?
How does the Muslim population growth rate in England compare to other European countries?
What factors contribute to the projected growth of the Muslim population in England by 2030?
How will the projected Muslim population in England impact local communities and social services?
What are the implications of the growing Muslim population on England's cultural and religious diversity?