How has the muslim population in England changed since 2010?
Executive summary
Between the 2011 and 2021 censuses the Muslim population of England (counting England & Wales in census releases) grew from roughly 2.7 million to about 3.87 million, raising its share of the population from about 5% to roughly 6.5% and accounting for about a third of the decade’s overall population increase [1] [2] [3].
1. The headline numbers: size and pace of change
Official and civil-society summaries show an increase of about 1.16 million Muslims in England and Wales between 2011 and 2021 — from roughly 2.7 million to 3.87 million — an absolute rise that outpaced national population growth and lifted Muslims to about 6.5% of the population on Census Day 2021 [1] [2] [3].
2. Why the population grew: fertility, age structure, migration and conversion
Analysts and census commentators point to a combination of a younger age profile and higher birth rates within Muslim communities, continued (though lower) net migration, and some conversions as the primary drivers of growth rather than any single short-term event; demographers emphasise that a younger median age concentrates people in childbearing cohorts, producing sustained natural increase [4] [5] [2].
3. Geography and internal change: concentration, dispersal and city hotspots
Growth has not been evenly spread: London remains the largest single Muslim concentration — housing a disproportionate share of the community — while traditional northern centres such as Bradford, Oldham, Birmingham and Manchester continue to record high local shares; recent analysis also finds Muslim communities gradually dispersing beyond traditional conurbations even as many remain clustered in more deprived local authority areas [6] [3].
4. Socio‑economic context: a young population facing entrenched inequalities
Census-based reports from community groups and researchers underline that the Muslim population is markedly younger (median ages cited around the high 20s vs mid‑40s for the wider population) and that growth has occurred alongside persistent socio‑economic challenges — including higher rates of overcrowding and a disproportionate share living in the most deprived districts — factors that complicate simple narratives about integration or static "immigrant" status [7] [3] [8].
5. Projections, debate and the limits of prediction
Future forecasts vary and depend heavily on assumptions about fertility, migration and identity; some commentary and secondary sources point to sizable long‑term increases in European Muslim populations and speculative UK mid‑century scenarios, but those projections rely on models with divergent inputs and should not be read as census facts [9]. The available census comparisons (2001–2011–2021) provide the firmest evidence of recent change; beyond 2021, public sources in this dossier provide estimates rather than definitive counts [5].
6. What the reporting does — and does not — answer
The material assembled here gives a clear, evidence‑based picture of substantial growth in absolute numbers and a moderate rise in national share between 2011 and 2021, driven by demography and migration and concentrated in urban and deprived areas [1] [2] [3]. It does not — and the cited sources do not — resolve questions about post‑2021 change at fine scale, the full causal mix at local level, or the long‑term socio‑political implications beyond the census snapshots; separate, longitudinal social research would be required for those judgements [5] [9].