How does the Muslim population in England compare to other European countries?
Executive summary
England’s Muslim population is among the largest and fastest‑growing in Western Europe: recent sources put Muslims in England (and Wales) at roughly 3–4 million people, about 6–7% of the population, with the highest concentrations in London and the West Midlands [1] [2]. Compared with other European countries, England/UK ranks behind France and roughly on par with or slightly ahead of Germany in proportional and absolute terms depending on the dataset and year, while projections show sizable growth across many European states through mid‑century [3] [4] [5].
1. Size now: how many and what share of the population
Census‑based reporting and secondary summaries converge on a current Muslim population in the UK/England area measured in the millions: the 2021 UK census records just under four million Muslims (about 6.0% of the UK) and other compilations for England alone put the total near 3.9 million or about 6.7% of England’s population [2] [1]. Earlier census snapshots show the jump from roughly 2.7 million in England and Wales in 2011 to markedly higher numbers in 2021, emphasizing the recent pace of increase [6].
2. Where England sits in Europe: absolute numbers and percentages
In absolute terms France is reported as having the largest Muslim population in Western Europe, followed by Germany and then the UK, though precise rankings vary by source and by whether overseas territories or differing estimation methods are included [3] [4]. Proportionally, the UK’s Muslim share historically has been higher than Germany’s (estimates in some datasets put Germany around the mid‑single digits and the UK around 6–7%), while France’s percentage is often cited as higher than the UK’s, making Britain among the top Western European countries for both absolute numbers and share but not the single largest [4] [3].
3. Why numbers differ between sources: methods and assumptions
Differences in reported totals arise from method (census self‑identification versus survey estimates), geography (England vs. UK vs. England & Wales), timing (2011 vs. 2021 vs. 2024–25 estimates), and modeller assumptions about migration and fertility; commercial compilations and news aggregators sometimes produce broader ranges by blending ONS data with projections [1] [7]. Projections from organizations like Statista and Pew rely on scenarios for fertility, migration and religious retention and therefore produce diverging mid‑century forecasts — for example Statista offers scenarios where the UK Muslim share rises substantially by 2050 while Pew highlights large percentage increases in several European countries but stresses uncertainty [5] [8].
4. Demographics and geography within England
Muslim communities in England are concentrated in urban centres: London alone is estimated to house more than a million Muslims, making it the region with the highest Muslim population, and other concentrations occur in the West Midlands and northern towns [9] [1]. Demographically, Muslims in England are younger on average than other religious groups and their numbers grew faster than the non‑Muslim population between past census rounds, trends that amplify future growth potential even without high migration scenarios [2] [1].
5. Projections, politics and competing narratives
Long‑range projections vary: some sources project the UK Muslim share could reach double digits by mid‑century under high‑migration scenarios, while others present more modest increases; such forecasts are highly sensitive to migration flows, differential fertility and assimilation patterns and thus are not certainties [5] [4]. Reporting and commentary occasionally reflect agendas—commercial sites and partisan outlets sometimes emphasize large‑number “transformation” narratives or alarmist framings, whereas academic and public‑opinion sources stress methodological caveats and the role of integration and intergenerational change [3] [10].
6. Bottom line
England’s Muslim population is large by Western European standards—measured in millions and a mid‑single‑digit share of the national population—with fast recent growth and youthful demographics that differentiate it from many European peers; France and Germany remain the principal comparators in absolute terms, and projections indicate meaningful increases across Europe though estimates differ by source and scenario [2] [3] [5]. Where precise ranking or long‑term shares matter, reliance on primary census releases (ONS/NRS/NISRA) and transparent projection assumptions is essential because secondary compilations and sensational commentary often overstate certainty [1] [7].