How many Muslims live in Europe in 2025 and how has this changed since 2000?
Executive summary
Most reputable recent estimates place Europe's Muslim population near 45–46 million in 2025, roughly 6% of the continent, up from about 19.5–24.9 million (3.8–5%) around 2000–2010 depending on definitions and datasets (e.g., Pew and secondary summaries) [1] [2] [3]. Growth since 2000 reflects immigration, higher fertility among Muslim populations, and definitional differences across studies; projections and scenarios diverge widely depending on migration assumptions [2] [4].
1. What the headline numbers say — similar mid‑2020s estimates
Most contemporary summaries converge on about 45–46 million Muslims in Europe around 2025, or roughly 6% of a European population in the mid‑700 millions range [1] [5]. Journalistic and secondary sources repeating Pew-based figures use that ballpark and give country breakdowns (France, Germany, UK among the largest absolute communities) [1] [5]. Statista’s charts and Pew’s mid‑2016 baseline (25.8 million in the EU+Norway+Switzerland definition) underpin many of these extrapolations [6] [2].
2. How that compares to 2000–2010 — clear upward trend, but definitional issues matter
Pew’s work and related reporting show that the Muslim share and absolute number rose markedly from the 1990s and 2000s: Pew estimated about 19.5 million (3.8%) in 2010 and 25.8 million (4.9%) in mid‑2016 for the EU+Norway+Switzerland grouping; other academic estimates for broader European sets put totals higher earlier or later [2] [3]. Some researchers calculate roughly 24.9 million Muslims in a 30‑country European set around 2000 and use different methods to get to mid‑2020s shares, which produces slightly different baselines and growth rates [7]. In short: the Muslim population has grown since 2000, but the size of that growth depends on which countries and years are counted [2] [7].
3. Drivers of the change — immigration, fertility and age structure
Researchers identify three main drivers: migration (the largest driver in some recent periods), higher fertility among Muslim women (often cited as roughly one child per woman more than non‑Muslims in Europe, though the gap narrows), and a younger age distribution among Muslims [2] [4] [3]. Pew’s analysis explicitly separates migration scenarios (zero, medium, high) to show how much future Muslim population size depends on continued inflows versus natural increase [2].
4. Why different studies give different answers — scope, method and scenarios
Estimates vary because sources define “Europe” differently (EU member states plus Norway/Switzerland versus a 30‑country set), use census vs. survey vs. projection methodologies, and apply alternative migration scenarios [6] [2] [7]. Pew’s medium‑migration scenario produces different mid‑century outcomes than a high‑migration scenario; Statista reproductions of Pew charts make these distinctions explicit [6] [2].
5. What projections predict — continued growth but with big caveats
Pew projects continued growth through mid‑century driven by demography and migration, but rates slow as fertility differentials decline; under zero‑migration scenarios Muslims still increase their share because of age and fertility differences, though the magnitude is far smaller than in high‑migration scenarios [2] [4]. Secondary writers and analysts emphasize that changes by 2050 are highly sensitive to policy and migration flows [6] [2].
6. Alternative perspectives and common misinterpretations
Some popular pieces and commentaries inflate claims of an imminent “Muslim takeover” by misreading scenario upper bounds as forecasts; rigorous analysts and Pew explicitly reject alarmist readings and instead present multiple scenarios and caveats [8] [2]. Conversely, partisan outlets or forecasts with narrow country sets can understate the contribution of longstanding Muslim populations in the Balkans, Russia and the Caucasus, which raise Europe’s Muslim totals relative to EU‑only counts [9] [5].
7. What’s not clearly answered by available sources
Available sources do not mention a single authoritative, universally accepted count of Muslims for “Europe 2025” that covers every territorial definition and measurement method; instead the record offers scenario‑based estimates and country‑level snapshots (not found in current reporting). Precise country totals for 2025 vary across secondary aggregators and depend on the underlying census or survey dates [5] [10].
8. Bottom line for readers
Expect credible mid‑2020s estimates near 45–46 million Muslims in Europe (about 6%), up from roughly 20–25 million in the 2000–2010 period depending on the definition used; the increase is driven by migration, demographic age structure and historically higher fertility, and future trajectories hinge critically on migration policy and fertility convergence [1] [2] [4].