Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: How many Muslims lived in Europe in 2020 and what are 2025 estimates?
Executive Summary
Europe’s Muslim population in 2020 is reported variably but centers around the mid-to-high 40 millions, roughly 6–7% of the continent’s population, while 2025 estimates cluster near 46 million (about 6%) reflecting continued but modest growth driven by fertility, migration and demographic momentum [1] [2] [3]. Major data providers and summaries diverge in methods and geographic definitions — some use the European Union as the unit, others the whole continent — producing differences of a few million rather than radically different trends [2] [3].
1. Conflicting headline counts — why 44, 46 or 49 million appear in different reports
Multiple analyses present different headline totals for Muslims in Europe around 2020 because they apply different geographic scopes and methods. One long-run study summarized the Muslim population through 1950–2020 and reported about 49 million (≈7%) in 2020, reflecting a broader continental definition and historical trend extrapolations [1]. Pew Research Center’s summary gives 44 million (≈6%) in 2010 with a projection to 58 million by 2030, implying a lower baseline earlier and faster projected growth, and its reporting often distinguishes the European Union from Europe as a whole [2]. A 2025 synthesis and country-ranking pieces converge on ~46 million in 2025 (≈6%), signaling modest growth from the 2010–2020 decade and alignment with fertility plus migration assumptions [3] [4]. The methodological choices — census data, survey estimates, migration scenarios, and whether Russia or Turkey are included — explain most of the numerical spread rather than contradictory demographic dynamics [2] [3].
2. What the 2020 picture likely was when reconciling datasets
Reconciling the reported estimates suggests that 2020 Europe had roughly mid-to-high 40 millions of Muslims, with plausible central estimates between 44 and 49 million depending on inclusions [1] [2]. The 2010 Pew baseline of 44 million combined with decadal growth patterns and country-level increases supports a 2020 tally near the upper 40s, while the long-run 1950–2020 compilation specifying 49 million treats the period-end as cumulative across more inclusive boundaries [2] [1]. A consistent signal across sources is that Muslims constituted a minority share—around 6–7%—of Europe’s population in 2020; discrepancies are therefore quantitative not qualitative, and reflect the difference between continental vs. EU boundaries and population estimation techniques [1] [2].
3. The 2025 snapshot — convergence on modest growth
Recent 2025-focused summaries and country-by-country compilations converge on a Europe Muslim population of about 46 million, roughly 6% of a ~744–745 million continental population, pointing to continued but not explosive growth from 2020 to 2025 [3] [4]. These 2025 figures are derived from the same drivers identified earlier: higher fertility in Muslim populations compared with native majorities, continued immigration, and demographic momentum, tempered by aging and broader population dynamics in non-Muslim populations [3]. The 2025 count aligns more closely with conservative projections than with higher-range extrapolations; it also reflects that short-term shocks to migration flows can change trajectories but did not produce a jump in totals between 2020 and 2025 in the sources cited [3] [4].
4. Projections and competing scenarios — how future numbers vary with assumptions
Sources emphasize that medium-term projections vary substantially depending on migration assumptions: Pew’s long-term scenarios show Europe’s Muslim share can rise more under sustained migration than under no-migration scenarios, with 2050 estimates ranging widely in different modeling setups [2] [5]. The 2025 estimates reported in contemporary summaries embed moderate migration and fertility assumptions, generating the ~46 million result, while higher estimates like 58 million by 2030 in Pew’s projection reflect stronger growth hypotheses or different baselines [2]. The key takeaway is that small changes in net migration into Europe or fertility differentials produce multi-million-person differences within a decade, so policymakers and analysts must note scenario assumptions when citing headline figures [2] [5].
5. What’s missing and why caution matters for interpretation
Available summaries omit consistent, uniform methodology across countries, often exclude or inconsistently include Russia and Turkey, and rely on projections with different dates and assumptions, leading to avoidable confusion when comparing numbers. Country-level rankings and recent 2025 lists identify major concentrations in Russia, France, Germany, and the UK, underscoring that distribution matters as much as totals for social and policy implications [4]. Analysts should therefore treat single-number headlines as indicative rather than definitive, and when precision matters, consult the underlying country-by-country data and scenario assumptions that produced the totals [4] [1].