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Fact check: How many muslims are there in Europe?
Executive summary
Europe’s Muslim population is reported in this set of sources as roughly 46 million people, about 6% of Europe’s ~744–745 million residents in 2025, according to two recent summaries [1] [2]. Longitudinal modelling from Pew shows substantial uncertainty: with zero migration the share could rise modestly by mid-century, while higher migration scenarios project much larger increases by 2050, producing widely divergent outcomes [3]. This short analysis extracts the core claims, highlights differences in methodology and emphasis across sources, and flags clear signs of agenda-driven framing in at least one item [4].
1. Why the 46 million figure appears repeatedly — and what it actually means
Two contemporary summaries present a near-identical headline number for 2025: about 46 million Muslims in Europe, roughly 6% of the population, and attribute growth to migration and higher fertility [1] [2]. Those pieces provide a concise snapshot but do not disclose detailed methodological choices in these extracts: they do not specify whether “Europe” equals the European Union, the Council of Europe, or the geographic continent, nor whether their counts include naturalized citizens, temporary migrants, or people with a Muslim background but no religious affiliation. The same summaries name migration and fertility as the primary drivers of growth, a common framing that aligns with other demographic discussions, but the short reports do not present country-by-country breakdowns or uncertainty ranges in these excerpts [1] [2].
2. Pew’s scenarios — small changes or large swings depending on migration
Pew Research’s modelling presents a structured way to understand why headline numbers diverge: it projects multiple scenarios for Europe’s Muslim population through 2050 under different migration assumptions. Pew’s central finding in the referenced summary is that the Muslim share could increase from about 4.9% in 2016 to roughly 7.4% by 2050 with zero migration, and climb to 11.2% or 14% under slower or higher migration scenarios respectively, illustrating how sensitive long-range projections are to migration flows and fertility assumptions [3]. These scenario ranges explain why short-term snapshots (like the 46 million estimate for 2025) and long-term forecasts (Pew’s mid-century scenarios) can look inconsistent without clarity about assumptions and time horizons [3].
3. Older and alternative sources add nuance but not consensus
A set of earlier or alternative summaries offers different emphases: two 2017 items and a 2025 country-focused piece indicate that Europe’s Muslim share has been reported in some places around 5% and note France and Germany as having the largest Muslim populations, yet those sources in this dataset either do not provide a clear continent-wide total or present only partial country breakdowns [5] [6] [7]. The presence of both 2017 overviews and 2025 snapshots underscores that reporting often lags or varies by publisher: different publication dates and scopes produce different headline figures, and several of these entries explicitly lack a single, directly comparable continent-wide estimate [6] [7].
4. Global context and extreme projections — useful but potentially alarmist
Global compilations note Islam’s status as the world’s second-largest religion and place the European numbers in a wider context [8] [9]. One source in the set quotes a much higher mid-century figure — 76 million and roughly 16% of Europe by 2050 — and explicitly links this to a 2017 Pew research paper while using a provocative framing in its headline [4]. That item’s tone and wording indicate an agenda-driven narrative that amplifies the upper bound of Pew’s scenarios; the underlying numerical citation traces back to a model with high-migration assumptions, not an empirical count for today, which matters when interpreting alarmist headlines [4].
5. Bottom line for readers seeking a reliable answer today
The most consistent immediate answer across these materials is ~46 million Muslims in Europe in 2025, about 6% of the population, as reported by two 2025 summaries [1] [2]. For medium- and long-term outlooks, rely on scenario-based projections like Pew’s: the range by 2050 spans from modest increases under zero migration to substantially larger shares under high migration, so any claim about a coming “takeover” reflects choice of scenario and rhetorical framing rather than a single settled fact [3] [4]. Evaluate future-oriented claims by checking the publication date, whether the estimate is a current count or a projection, and what migration and fertility assumptions underpin the number [3] [5].