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Fact check: How does the Muslim population in France compare to other European countries in 2025?
Executive Summary
France had one of the largest Muslim populations in Europe in 2025, commonly estimated at about 6–7 million people, roughly 9% of the national population, making it the largest single-country Muslim population in Western Europe [1] [2] [3]. Across Europe in 2025 there were roughly 46 million Muslims (about 6% of Europe’s population), and analysts projected substantial growth through mid-century driven by fertility and migration trends, while contemporaneous reporting documented rising anti-Muslim incidents and widespread perceptions of discrimination in France [2] [4] [5].
1. Why France looks like Europe’s Muslim population center — numbers and rankings that matter
Estimates in 2025 consistently placed France at or near the top in absolute Muslim numbers within Europe, with figures centered on 6–7 million people, or around 9% of France’s population, making it a leading national concentration in Western Europe [1] [2] [3]. Those totals are higher in absolute terms than most other European countries because France’s overall population is large and its historical migration patterns from North Africa and former colonies have produced substantial Muslim-origin communities. The same 2025 analyses put Europe’s overall Muslim population near 46 million (about 6% of the continent), which frames France’s share as a disproportionately large national slice of the European total [2] [1]. Analysts cited fertility and continued migration as key drivers for future increases in France’s Muslim population through 2050 [2] [3].
2. Growth forecasts and the debate over mid-century projections
Multiple 2025 sources projected sharp increases in Muslim populations across Europe by 2050, often citing higher fertility rates and net migration as the primary mechanisms; some forecasts suggested European Muslim populations could reach substantially higher shares by mid-century [2]. For France specifically, commentators and some demographic models predicted continued growth that could alter the country’s religious-demographic profile over decades, though the magnitude of change depends heavily on migration policy, asylum flows, and fertility convergence dynamics. The sources diverged in tone and specificity: some presented quantitative tripling scenarios as illustrative of potential trajectories, while others framed growth as more gradual and contingent [2] [3]. These differences reflect methodological choices and political framing rather than contradictions in baseline counts for 2025.
3. How France compares to Germany, the UK and other European states in composition and context
While France ranked at or near the top in absolute Muslim numbers in 2025, Germany and the UK also hosted large Muslim populations but with different historical and legal contexts affecting integration and census practices [2] [3]. France’s secular-republican model and restrictions on collecting religious data complicate direct percentage comparisons; therefore many 2025 estimates rely on indirect demographic methods and community surveys. The presence of roughly 6–7 million Muslims in France is comparable in magnitude to the Muslim populations reported for Germany and the UK, but France’s share of national population (around 9%) stood out relative to broader European averages [1] [2]. Analysts noted that differences in data collection, citizenship pathways, and birthplace composition shape how each country’s Muslim population is counted and discussed [6] [7].
4. Social climate: rising incidents and perceptions of hostility in 2025
Alongside demographic figures, 2025 reporting documented a sharp rise in anti-Muslim incidents in France and worsening perceptions among Muslim communities, with some sources recording large year-on-year increases in reported incidents and surveys showing overwhelming perceptions that hatred towards Muslims is widespread [4] [5]. One 2025 survey found that 82% of Muslims in France believed hatred was widespread and 81% saw it increasing over the past decade, with two-thirds reporting personal experiences of racist behavior [5]. These contemporaneous social indicators matter because they affect integration outcomes, civic participation and the political debate over immigration, secularism, and public policy—context that raw population counts alone do not capture [4] [5].
5. What is settled and what remains uncertain — data limits and policy implications
The 2025 consensus on France’s Muslim population as roughly 6–7 million (around 9%) and Europe’s count near 46 million is robust across estimates, but uncertainties remain due to data limitations, differing methodologies, and policy-driven migration scenarios [1] [2] [3]. France’s legal limits on collecting religious affiliation and variation in how researchers infer Muslim identity introduce error margins; growth projections to 2050 depend on migration policy, economic conditions, and fertility convergence. The simultaneous rise in reported anti-Muslim incidents and strong perceptions of discrimination in 2025 underscores that demographic change is entwined with social and political dynamics, making clear that numbers alone do not predict outcomes—policy choices and social responses will shape how demographic trends translate into lived realities [5] [4].