Fact check: How does the Muslim population in France compare to the UK in 2025?

1. Why the headline numbers place France ahead — raw counts versus shares that matter

Multiple 2025 summaries converge on France having roughly 6–7 million Muslims and the UK about 4–5 million, placing France ahead by one to three million people in absolute terms ^{[1] [2]}. France’s share is commonly reported near 9–10%, versus the UK’s around 6–6.5%, a gap driven partly by France’s larger Muslim-origin immigrant population and historical migration patterns. These figures emphasize absolute population size as the reason France ranks first in Europe, but they also underline that percentage shares remain in single digits for both countries in 2025 ^{[1] [2]}.

2. What the UK figures are based on — census snapshots and regional reporting

UK reporting in 2025 leans on recent census-based summaries that place Muslims at about 6.5% in England and Wales and roughly 4–4.5 million nationwide, with Sunnis forming a majority of that community ^{[3] [4]}. These statistics reflect self-reported religion from census exercises and demographic estimates, meaning they capture identity as declared at a point in time rather than purely parental origin or practicing patterns. The England and Wales census data published earlier ^[5] remains a baseline for 2025 estimates, and subsequent reporting reiterates the UK’s lower share relative to France ^[4].

3. Why estimates vary — methods, migration flows, and fertility assumptions

Analysts note that variance across sources stems from different methodologies: some reports synthesize census data, others use migration and fertility modelling, and a few extrapolate from survey samples ^{[6] [7]}. Projections that expect significant growth in France rely on higher fertility assumptions for Muslim women (e.g., 2.9 births per woman in some models) and continued immigration—claims that push long-term shares upward ^{[7] [6]}. Other sources report more moderate fertility (around 2.2) and emphasize immigration as the dominant driver of recent increases, a distinction that changes forecasts materially ^[6].

4. Competing projections — short-term consensus, long-term divergence

Short-term ^[8] figures converge: France leads in absolute numbers and percentage points ^{[1] [2]}. Longer-term projections diverge, however, with some analysts suggesting France could approach 17% by 2050 under higher fertility and migration scenarios, while others forecast more modest increases if fertility converges toward national averages and migration slows ^{[7] [6]}. These competing scenarios reveal that 2025 snapshots are more robust than long-range forecasts, which hinge on policy choices, migration trends, and assimilation patterns.

5. What’s often omitted — regional differences and legal constraints on data

Many summaries omit subnational concentration, such as urban clustering in Île-de-France or certain UK cities, which affects social and political dynamics beyond national percentages ^{[2] [3]}. France’s legal framework also restricts collection of official religious statistics, so estimates rely on indirect methods; the UK benefits from decennial census religion questions that provide firmer baselines ^{[4] [2]}. These methodological constraints explain why France’s totals often come from synthesis rather than a single authoritative survey ^{[2] [6]}.

6. How different framings can serve distinct agendas

Sources framing long-term high-growth scenarios tend to emphasize demographic replacement narratives and political consequences, while others focus on integration indicators and stabilizing fertility rates ^{[7] [6]}. Both framings use similar underlying data but select different assumptions about fertility, migration, and assimilation, which can advance policy or political arguments. Recognizing these choices matters: the same baseline numbers (6–7 million vs. 4–5 million) can be used to argue for very different future policy responses ^{[1] [2]}.

7. Bottom line for readers — what is most certain and what remains uncertain

The most certain fact in 2025 is that France had a larger Muslim population in absolute terms and a higher national share than the UK, with common estimates around 6–7 million (9–10%) for France and 4–4.5 million (6–6.5%) for the UK ^{[1] [2] [4]}. Uncertainty centers on future trajectories: differences in fertility, migration, and data collection methods produce wide long-term projections, so readers should treat 2025 totals as current best estimates rather than deterministic forecasts ^{[7] [6]}.