What are the projections for Muslim population growth in US states by 2030?

1. How national projections translate — and where the data stops sparking local forecasts

Pew’s widely cited projection that the U.S. Muslim population will expand to about 6.2 million by 2030 is framed as a national estimate based on fertility, age structure, and immigration scenarios; that estimate is the anchor for most subsequent media reporting but it does not include granular state-level forecasts in the public report. Media summaries and demographic briefs repeat the national doubling figure and highlight drivers—continued immigration and relatively higher fertility—that explain national growth, while also noting increasing shares of native-born Muslims over time. The available reporting therefore leaves a gap: analysts can infer that states with current large Muslim communities will grow numerically, but the primary sources stop short of publishing reproducible, state‑by‑state 2030 counts or percentages ^{[1] [2] [4]}.

2. Where Muslims live now — and which states are most likely to see the biggest numerical increases

Contemporary demographic descriptions identify coastal and large metropolitan states—New York, New Jersey, California, and Illinois—as having the largest Muslim populations today, driven by historical immigration patterns, refugee resettlement, and established community networks and institutions. Those same structural factors make these states the most likely places for continued numeric growth through 2030, even if the percentage point change may be modest relative to total state population. Several sources caution that, despite fast relative growth, Muslim communities in many western states will remain numerically small compared with global concentrations, and that national growth remains modest relative to the entire U.S. population by mid‑century projections ^{[5] [3]}.

3. Conflicting time horizons — short‑term 2030 vs longer‑term 2040–2050 projections

Different analyses emphasize different horizons: the 2030 projection (to 6.2 million) is a near‑term snapshot often used to show rapid growth, while Pew and others extend scenarios to 2040 and 2050 projecting continued growth to an estimated 8.1 million by 2050 and an increased religious ranking by 2040 in some models. These longer‑range forecasts reiterate the same drivers—immigration, fertility, and age structure—but add uncertainty from policy changes, migration shocks, and assimilation patterns that can alter state‑by‑state outcomes. Reporting that juxtaposes 2030 and 2050 figures therefore reflects different modeling windows; readers should not conflate the 2030 state‑level silence with a lack of long‑term national projections ^{[6] [5] [4]}.

4. What’s missing for policymakers and local planners — and how to get better state estimates

The available sources provide credible national projections but do not deliver standardized, reproducible state‑level 2030 counts, leaving planners and journalists to rely on proxies: local census microdata, American Community Survey ancestry and birthplace indicators, mosque counts, school and language statistics, and state migration records. Producing robust state projections requires combining national demographic rates with state‑specific immigration and fertility inputs and transparent scenario assumptions; absent that, claims about which states will experience the largest percentage increases by 2030 remain speculative. To move from national projection to usable state forecasts, analysts should publish methodology, confidence intervals, and alternative scenarios so local governments and communities can plan for services and civic integration based on explicit, reproducible models ^{[2] [3] [1]}.