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What regional variations exist in Muslim population percentages across London, Birmingham, and Manchester in 2021 and 2025 estimates?
Executive Summary
Census and related reports show clear regional variation: Birmingham and Manchester had substantially higher Muslim shares in 2021 than the national average, while Greater London hosted the largest absolute Muslim population but a lower percentage than Birmingham. Estimates for 2025 point to continued growth in absolute numbers but rely on projections and partial reporting, so percentage changes are uncertain.
1. Clear claims drawn from the sources — what the datasets assert and what they do not
The assembled sources make three core claims: Greater London contained over 1.3 million Muslims in 2021 representing about 15% of its population [1]; Birmingham’s Muslim share in 2021 was 29.9% with 341,811 Muslims [2] [3]; and Manchester had 122,962 Muslims in 2021, roughly 22% of its population [3] [4]. The sources also assert national-level context: the UK Muslim population is estimated at about 4 million or 6% in 2025, with London holding over 1.5 million Muslims in some estimates [5] [6]. What is missing from these materials is a clean, directly comparable 2025 percentage for each city; available 2025 statements are projections or summaries without consistent denominators [5] [6].
2. The 2021 picture: percentages and absolute counts that change the narrative
The 2021 census-derived numbers present a striking regional pattern. Birmingham stands out with nearly 30% Muslim residents, a figure far above the England and Wales average of about 6.5% [2] [7]. Manchester’s Muslim share around 22% and its count of 122,962 underline a major local concentration [3] [4]. Greater London’s 1.3 million Muslims equal about 15% of its population in 2021, making it the city with the largest absolute Muslim community but not the highest share [1]. These 2021 figures show that concentration (percentage) and absolute size tell different policy stories: London’s absolute numbers drive service demand, while Birmingham and Manchester’s higher shares shape local politics, schooling, and community services [1] [2] [3].
3. 2025 estimates: growth in numbers, but shaky percentage comparisons
Sources offering 2025 snapshots indicate growth in absolute Muslim numbers nationally and in London—over 1.5 million Muslims in London and roughly 4 million in the UK in 2025—but they do not consistently convert those into city percentages [5] [6]. The 2025 “British Muslims in Numbers” brief highlights socio-economic shifts and distribution but emphasizes that estimates rely on projection models and administrative data, not a new full census, so local percentage changes versus 2021 remain uncertain [6]. Analysts must treat 2025 city percentages as provisional: absolute Muslim numbers likely rose since 2021, but whether a city’s percentage changed meaningfully depends on local population growth, migration, and differential birth rates—factors not uniformly reported across the sources [5] [6].
4. Where within cities Muslims are concentrated — inner-city versus wider metropolitan patterns
All sources emphasize that Muslim communities are geographically concentrated within particular wards and boroughs, not evenly distributed across metropolitan areas [1] [7] [3]. In London, concentrations appear in east London boroughs—Tower Hamlets, Newham, Hackney—and in pockets like Southall and parts of Hounslow [1]. Birmingham’s Muslim population is highly concentrated in inner-city wards such as Sparkbrook, Sparkhill, and Small Heath [7]. Manchester’s distribution shows high shares in specific neighborhoods, contributing to its overall higher city percentage [3]. These localized concentrations shape educational demographics—some Birmingham wards reported very high proportions of Muslim schoolchildren—and local service needs, making city-wide percentages an incomplete guide to on-the-ground demands [7] [3].
5. Data gaps, methodological caveats, and competing interpretations
The sources vary in method: full 2021 census counts (for city-level 2021 percentages) versus 2025 projection reports and summaries that mix survey, administrative, and modelled estimates [1] [5] [6]. This produces unavoidable uncertainty when comparing 2021 and 2025 percentages because denominators (total city populations) and definitions (religious identification vs. background) are not always consistent across reports [6] [8]. Some documents highlight socio-economic analyses—deprivation and unemployment among Muslims—introducing agenda-driven emphases on policy needs [6]. Readers should treat 2021 census percentages as the most robust baseline and view 2025 figures as indicative rather than definitive until full, comparable local estimates are published [1] [6].
6. Bottom line: consistent differences and cautious forward inference
The verified evidence shows a consistent regional pattern: Birmingham had the highest Muslim percentage (~30%) in 2021, Manchester was notably high (~22%), and Greater London had the largest absolute Muslim population but a lower percentage (~15%) [2] [3] [1]. 2025 sources point to continued absolute growth nationally and in London but do not provide standardized 2025 city percentages; therefore any claim of percentage shifts between 2021 and 2025 is provisional and model-dependent [5] [6]. Policy and planning should use the 2021 census for firm baselines and treat 2025 estimates as directional inputs that require careful local validation.