What is the Muslim population size in Newham compared to 2011 and 2021 Censuses?

1. A clear headline: Newham’s Muslim share grew, and 2021 gives a firm headcount

The assembled evidence indicates a definitive increase in Newham’s Muslim population share between the two censuses. The 2021 Census figure reported in multiple analyses places the Muslim share of Newham at 34.8% and the raw number at 122,146 people, providing a borough‑wide headcount for 2021 that is repeatedly cited ^{[2] [3]}. The 2011 figure for Newham appears in these materials primarily as a percentage (around 32%) rather than an explicitly stated headcount; this limits direct like‑for‑like numerical comparisons in absolute terms without a separate 2011 borough population total provided in these sources ^[1]. The 2021 headcount is the most concrete borough‑level datum available across the supplied analyses ^[2].

2. What the 2011 baseline looks like and why counts aren’t always shown

Among the analyses, the most common 2011 figure is a 32% Muslim share for Newham, but several sources note that a borough‑wide 2011 raw number is not directly given in their extracts, or that data available are projections rather than census counts ^{[1] [4]}. The absence of a single, cited 2011 headcount in these excerpts explains why some write‑ups stop at percentage comparisons or resort to seat‑level or ward‑level tallies instead ^[5]. Methodological differences matter here: ward or parliamentary‑seat tabulations, local authority summaries, and projection models (e.g., GLA projections) will produce different presentation formats and may omit raw totals even while reporting percentages ^{[1] [5]}.

3. Sub-borough snapshots show consistent increases but different scopes

Detailed breakdowns for parts of Newham — for example the Stratford and Bow parliamentary seat covering sections of the borough — show an increased Muslim population from 31,943 in 2011 to 41,080 in 2021, a rise in both numbers and share ^[5]. These seat‑level statistics back up the borough‑level picture of growth, but they also illustrate why figures can differ: seat and ward geographies do not align perfectly with borough boundaries, and some sources report percentages per ward (e.g., Green Street West 57.4%) without summing to a Newham total ^[5]. Readers should therefore expect consistent directional change across geographies but variation in absolute totals depending on the unit of analysis.

4. National and regional context that helps interpret the borough trend

The borough’s growth mirrors broader patterns: England and Wales saw the Muslim population rise from roughly 4.9% (about 2.7 million) in 2011 to 6.5% (about 3.9 million) in 2021, and London remained markedly more religiously diverse with higher Muslim shares than the national average ^[6]. The Muslim Council of Britain also highlights Newham as among local authorities with the largest Muslim populations in 2021, reporting the same 122,146 figure for Newham ^[7]. This alignment between national census releases and community organization tallies strengthens confidence that Newham’s increase is both real and part of a wider demographic shift ^{[6] [7]}.

5. Caveats, competing explanations, and what’s missing for a precise 2011–2021 arithmetical comparison

The primary limitation in the supplied material is the lack of a consistently cited borough‑level 2011 raw count paired directly with the 2021 headcount in the same data extract, which prevents a straightforward absolute-number delta in these excerpts ^{[1] [5]}. Some analyses also rely on projections or on different geographic units such as wards or parliamentary seats, which can introduce small but meaningful differences in totals ^[1]. Given that multiple independent items converge on 34.8% and 122,146 for 2021, the most rigorous immediate conclusion from the provided sources is that Newham’s Muslim population increased in share and count by 2021, even if a precise borough‑level 2011 headcount is not uniformly presented across the extracts ^{[2] [3] [5]}.