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What is the estimated size and share of the Muslim population in Paris as of 2025?
Executive summary
Estimates vary, but most accessible sources place Paris’s Muslim population (city or metro area) roughly between 10–15% or about 220,000 in the city proper and about 1.7 million across the Paris metropolitan region (aire urbaine) — the latter corresponding to roughly 10–15% of the metro-area population [1] [2]. France does not collect official religion data, so these figures are estimates with high margins of error and different definitions (city limits vs. greater Paris) [1] [3].
1. Numbers on the table: city vs. metro — different geographies, different estimates
Most sources distinguish Paris proper from the Paris metropolitan region. One commonly cited estimate is that Paris city (population ~2.2 million) contains about 10–15% Muslims — roughly 220,000 people — while the Paris metropolitan region or "aire urbaine" is often estimated to have about 1.7 million Muslims, also put at about 10–15% of that wider area's population [2] [1]. These two figures are not contradictory so much as reflective of which boundary is being described (commune of Paris versus the larger functional metro area) [1] [2].
2. Why the margin of error is large: legal and methodological constraints
Official French law restricts collecting data on religion or ethnicity in most public statistics; analysts therefore infer religious affiliation from proxies such as country of birth, parental origin, self‑reported surveys, or school enrolment studies — each with limits. The Paris metro estimate of 1.7 million Muslims is explicitly noted as a projection with a very wide margin of error because it relies on potential‑Muslim proxies rather than direct religious enumeration [1] [3].
3. Different studies, different audiences, different formats — results diverge
Academic and media outlets use varying methods and scopes. Visual or advocacy projects sometimes present a 10–15% figure for Paris city (about 220,000 people) aimed at mapping institutions and communities [2]. Broader demographic overviews and encyclopedic entries likewise report roughly 1.7 million Muslims in the Paris metro area, representing around 10–15% of the metro population [1]. Other contemporary outlets projecting national totals cite ranges for all of France (several million nationwide), illustrating how local shares change depending on whether you look at city, region, or national levels [1] [2].
4. School data and recent claims — why they may appear higher
Some reports and graphics have presented higher percentages for schoolchildren in Parisian schools (figures cited in 2025 as high as nearly 29% for some Paris school samples). Reuters’ fact check and other reporting stress that such figures usually refer to subsets of children (public schools, certain districts) and are drawn from specialized surveys like Trajectoires et Origines, not from a national religious census; thus they cannot be straightforwardly generalized to the whole city population [3]. Analysts caution against extrapolating student-sample percentages into an overall citywide share without accounting for school type and district coverage [3].
5. Geographic concentration and socio‑political implications
Scholars note a concentration of Muslim-origin populations in Paris and its suburbs: roughly one‑third of France’s Muslim population is concentrated around Paris, and many communities live in suburban departments rather than the central arrondissements. This spatial distribution shapes public debates about integration, schooling, and urban policy in the Île‑de‑France region [4] [5].
6. What reporting does not (and cannot) tell us reliably
Available sources consistently note the absence of official religious tallies in France and therefore the resulting uncertainty; they do not provide a single definitive 2025 figure for Muslims in Paris. If you are seeking an exact 2025 headcount or precise percentage for the city proper, available reporting does not offer a statutory census number and instead offers modeled estimates and survey-derived figures subject to methodological caveats [1] [3].
7. How to interpret these figures responsibly
Treat the common ranges — 10–15% in Paris city (~220,000) and about 1.7 million (10–15%) in the Paris metro area — as plausible, widely cited estimates rather than exact counts. When encountering higher percentages (for schoolchildren or certain neighborhoods), ask which population subset and data source they refer to; many such claims stem from surveys or school-enrolment samples rather than universal religious data [2] [3].
Limitations: All cited estimates rely on secondary analyses, proxies or surveys because France does not collect religion in routine official statistics; therefore margins of error are high and comparisons across sources require attention to geographic and methodological differences [1] [3].