What is the current Muslim population percentage in the UK as of 2023?
Executive summary
The most authoritative, publicly available baseline comes from the 2021 England and Wales census, which recorded Muslims as 6.5% of the population (about 3.87–3.9 million people) on census day — the figure most analysts use as the starting point for recent estimates [1] [2]. Later 2023 media and demographic write-ups produced slightly different UK-wide estimates — commonly 6.3% (around 4.13 million) — reflecting different methods, timeframes and geographic coverage, so the short answer: roughly 6–6.5%, depending on the source and methodology [3] [4] [1].
1. Official baseline: census counts and what they cover
The Office for National Statistics-backed reporting of the 2021 Census shows the Muslim population in England and Wales at roughly 3.87–3.9 million, representing 6.5% of that population, and that is the clearest official snapshot available from the last full census release [1] [2]. The census data underpinning this number are mapped and published by the ONS and used by community groups and analysts; they cover people who chose a religion on census day and so are a direct, self-reported measure rather than a projection or administrative count [5] [1].
2. 2023 estimates and alternative figures: why 6.3% shows up
Several 2023–2024 write-ups and demographic summaries present a slightly different headline — for example, some outlets and compilers state that Muslims represent about 6.3% of the UK population in 2023 (often quoted as ~4.13 million), a number that appears in aggregated media and private analyses that blend the 2021 census baseline with subsequent population growth and different geographic scopes (UK vs England & Wales) [3] [4]. These 6.3% estimates are not direct outputs of the 2021 census but are reasonable post-census extrapolations; they illustrate how headline percentages shift when analysts include separate projections, estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland, or alternative data sources [3] [4].
3. Methodology matters: why reported percentages diverge
Differences between 6.5% and 6.3% (and other lower or higher numbers in some reports) stem from scope and method: the 2021 census covers England and Wales only and is a self‑reported snapshot; other figures attempt UK‑wide totals, use labour force or survey sampling frames, or project growth since 2021 using birth, death and migration assumptions — each choice changes the denominator and numerator slightly [1] [6]. The ONS itself cautions about using survey-based tables for detailed breakdowns and notes exclusions such as people in communal establishments in some datasets, which can subtly affect percentage calculations [6]. Private sites and media outlets sometimes round, combine post‑census estimates, or republish projections (for instance longer‑term projections to 2050), which can create confusion if readers assume all figures are the same kind of measurement [7] [4].
4. Reading the numbers: context, caveats and competing narratives
Community groups and advocacy organizations point to the census growth — a reported 44% rise in a decade for the Muslim population in England and Wales — as evidence of demographic change and policy importance, while some commentators seize on different estimates to argue for either much higher shares or for cultural alarm, so scrutiny of sources is crucial [8] [1]. Analysts caution that rhetoric often outpaces data: the Muslim Council of Britain used the 2021 census figure (6.5%) to rebut inflated public perceptions and to highlight socioeconomic issues within Muslim communities rather than demographic alarmism [1] [9]. The presence of multiple credible estimates reflects real methodological choices rather than factual contradiction; the strongest anchor remains the census figure for England and Wales, with reasonable 2023 estimates clustering around 6–6.5% depending on whether UK‑wide adjustments are applied [1] [3].
5. Bottom line and how to use these figures
For practical purposes the most defensible public baseline is the 2021 census: Muslims accounted for about 6.5% of the population in England and Wales (≈3.87–3.9 million) and widely cited post‑census estimates for 2023 place the UK‑wide share in the low 6% range (commonly cited as ~6.3%, ≈4.1 million) depending on the estimator and scope — therefore answering the question as of 2023: roughly 6–6.5% of the population, with 6.5% tied to the 2021 census and ~6.3% appearing in some 2023 estimates [1] [3] [4]. If greater precision is required for policy or research, the ONS datasets and interactive census maps are the appropriate primary sources to consult and to reconcile England & Wales figures with separate Scotland and Northern Ireland data [5] [6].