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What are the projections for Muslim population in Europe by 2050?
Executive Summary
Europe’s Muslim population is projected to grow substantially by 2050 across alternative migration scenarios: roughly 7–14% of the European population depending on whether migration is zero, medium, or high, which translates to roughly 30 million to 75 million people in some summaries and about 58 million (≈10%) in central estimates; these figures come primarily from a widely cited Pew Research Center projection and secondary reporting that synthesises those scenarios [1] [2] [3]. The range reflects different assumptions about future migration, fertility, age structure, and religious switching; migration assumptions drive the largest divergence between scenarios while fertility differentials and age profiles have smaller but sustained effects on growth [4] [5].
1. Why the numbers vary so widely — migration versus demography
Projections diverge because models use different assumptions about migration flows, fertility rates, age structure, and religious conversion. The Pew methodology explicitly models three migration scenarios (zero, medium, high) and combines those with current fertility and age patterns to produce alternate 2050 outcomes; migration assumptions therefore produce the greatest spread between the low and high projections [4] [6]. Reporting on the same underlying Pew analysis presents the low-end 7.4% (zero migration) and high-end 14% (high migration) shares of the European population, and media summaries translate those shares into absolute headcounts — roughly 30 million in a zero-migration world, ~59 million under medium migration, and ~75 million under high migration — which explains why different outlets cite different headline figures [1] [2]. The methodological note underscores that fertility declines and the ageing profile of Muslim populations moderate but do not eliminate growth, so even with limited migration a gradual increase is expected [4].
2. The middle-ground estimate many analysts highlight
Multiple summaries converge on a mid-range projection near 10% of Europe’s population by 2050, or about 58 million Muslims when excluding Turkey — this is the figure frequently cited as the central estimate in media and encyclopedic overviews that synthesise Pew’s scenarios [3] [1]. This mid estimate assumes ongoing but not extreme migration alongside higher-than-average fertility for Muslim populations in Europe during the next decades, with an expectation that fertility will decline over time toward host-country norms. Reporting published in 2017 and syntheses updated through 2024–2025 reiterate the same mid-range outcome, indicating consensus around a substantial but not transformative demographic shift within Europe’s overall population composition [2] [7].
3. Country-level variation: concentrated shifts, not uniform change
Projections indicate that growth will be uneven across Europe: Western and Northern European countries that received larger numbers of migrants and refugees in recent years (notably Germany, Sweden, and the UK) are expected to see the most pronounced increases, potentially approaching or exceeding national tripling in Muslim populations in some country-level scenarios, while much of Eastern Europe remains at low shares [8]. This geographic concentration matters politically and socially because national-level percentages can differ markedly from the regional European average; the headline 10–11% figure masks significant subnational and national variation that shapes local policy debates and electoral dynamics [8] [5].
4. Trends that reduce future growth — fertility convergence and migration slowdown
Analysts note two countervailing trends that temper long-term Muslim population growth: first, fertility rates among Muslim populations are projected to decline, narrowing the gap with non-Muslim Europeans; second, many scenarios expect migration flows to level off after major inflows, which further slows the pace of change [7]. These dynamics produce convergence toward slower growth over time, meaning the largest share increases occur in the near-to-medium term if migration remains elevated, but long-term percentages may stabilise lower than the most extreme high-migration scenarios predict. The Pew methodological discussion emphasises that demography alone does not lock in political outcomes; the pace and distribution of demographic change shape social and policy responses [4] [7].
5. What to watch next — data, policy choices, and reporting caveats
Future revisions will hinge on updated migration records, fertility trends, and the prevalence of religious switching; observers should watch releases that update baseline years and scenario assumptions for 2030–2050 windows. Media summaries sometimes present absolute numbers without clarifying whether they stem from zero, medium, or high migration assumptions, producing misleading impressions; careful reading of methodology pages is essential to know which scenario a headline cites [6] [2]. The most recent syntheses through mid-2025 reaffirm the central picture: substantial growth with meaningful uncertainty, and the most consequential variable for outcomes between now and 2050 remains the level of migration policymakers and global events produce [7] [1].