What are projections for Muslim population in other US cities like New York or Chicago by 2030?

Executive summary — National growth doesn’t equal city forecasts: clear national projections, no reliable city-by-city 2030 numbers

Pew projects the U.S. Muslim population to rise from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2 million by 2030, increasing national share from 0.8% to 1.7%, but Pew does not provide city-level forecasts for New York, Chicago, or other metropolitan areas ^[1]. Available local and secondary sources document sizable and growing Muslim communities in New York City and Chicago and offer demographic context—age structure, nativity, diversity—but they do not supply explicit 2030 population projections for those cities ^{[2] [3] [4]}. Any claim that New York or Chicago will have a specific Muslim population in 2030 is unsupported by the cited sources; producing city forecasts requires localized methods and data that the provided sources do not contain ^{[5] [1]}.

1. Why national projections exist but city forecasts are missing — the data gap that matters

Pew’s national projection is methodologically explicit and widely cited, estimating U.S. Muslim growth through fertility, age structure, migration, and religious switching trends, producing the 6.2 million by 2030 figure ^[1]. By contrast, major public-data tools (including the U.S. census) do not collect religion on every decennial instrument, and local demographic studies rely on surveys, service-provider records, or community estimates that vary in coverage and method. The sources reviewed confirm this divergence: national-level modeling is available and recent, while city-level counts for New York and Chicago are characterized as estimates or descriptive demographic profiles rather than formal projections ^{[5] [3] [1]}. That structural gap explains why the provided materials document presence and growth but stop short of city-specific 2030 forecasts.

2. What the local sources actually say — growth, diversity, and demographic context

Local and state-oriented sources describe Muslim populations as diverse, younger, and in some areas growing faster than the general population, with notable immigrant-origin shares and language diversity in states like Illinois and cities like New York ^{[3] [2]}. Chicago reporting and organizational statements note an increase in services to meet a rising Muslim population, but they do not quantify a 2030 total; journalistic and advocacy sources provide ranges and community-level snapshots rather than model-based forecasts ^{[4] [6]}. These local materials are valuable for understanding composition and service needs, but they lack the transparent assumptions and projection mechanics necessary to convert qualitative growth into a defensible 2030 headcount ^{[3] [1]}.

3. Why simple scaling from national projections produces unreliable city estimates

Applying Pew’s national growth rate proportionally to a city’s current estimated Muslim share is methodologically unsound because urban trajectories depend on migration patterns, local birth rates, differential assimilation, and refugee resettlement tied to policy and networks. The reviewed analyses explicitly note Pew’s lack of city breakdown and caution that independent city estimates—where available—vary widely and are not derived from the same projection engine ^{[1] [2]}. Local organizations and media sometimes report broad ranges for cities like Chicago, reflecting different definitions (city limits vs. metro area) and data sources; these inconsistencies make scaling national forecasts without local modeling likely to produce misleading results ^{[4] [6]}.

4. What to do next — how to get credible city-level 2030 projections and the limits you should expect

To produce defensible city 2030 projections, combine national projection inputs (fertility, age structure, migration) with city-specific data on recent migration flows, birth rates, and community surveys, and model multiple scenarios (low/medium/high). The sources reviewed underscore that credible local forecasting requires original modeling or access to municipal-level administrative data, which the provided materials do not include ^{[1] [3]}. Expect continued uncertainty: absence of religion questions in routine census products, differing definitions of who counts as Muslim, and policy-driven migration shifts will keep city forecasts probabilistic rather than exact. For reliable city-level estimates, commission localized demographic modeling or consult municipal planning departments, academic demographers, and community organizations who can combine administrative and survey data into transparent projection models ^{[2] [3] [1]}.