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How many Muslims are there in the UK population?
Executive Summary
The most reliable post-2011 benchmark across the provided analyses places the Muslim population in England and Wales at about 3.87–3.9 million in 2021, representing roughly 6.5% of England and Wales’ population, and when adding Scotland and Northern Ireland the UK total is commonly estimated at about 4.0 million (≈6% of the UK); these figures come from 2021 census releases and subsequent compilations [1] [2] [3] [4]. The data show a substantial rise from 2011 — roughly a 44% increase in England and Wales and an increase of about 1.16–1.2 million people — and different summaries and secondary sources vary slightly in totals and percentage framing depending on whether they report England and Wales only or attempt a full UK estimate [5] [6] [7].
1. Why the 2021 census numbers dominate the story and what they say loudly
The 2021 Census for England and Wales is the primary empirical basis for recent counts, and its published totals are consistently cited across the analyses as the definitive snapshot, showing approximately 3.87–3.9 million Muslims in England and Wales and a share near 6.5% of that population, with detailed breakdowns by sex and local-area concentrations underscoring urban clustering in places such as Tower Hamlets and Blackburn [1] [2] [5] [3]. The census figures are authoritative because they are comprehensive enumerations rather than estimates, and multiple entries in the provided material reiterate the same headline increases from 2011 to 2021, signaling a clear demographic trend: rapid growth in the Muslim-identifying population over the decade [1] [5].
2. Reconciling England & Wales totals with UK-wide estimates
Analysts and compilers diverge when moving from England and Wales to the whole UK: the census data for England and Wales are explicit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland run separate censuses and their numbers are smaller and published separately; therefore several summaries present a rounded UK-wide figure of about 4 million Muslims (≈6% of the UK) by adding Scotland and Northern Ireland to the England and Wales total [2] [4]. Secondary compilations, including a Wikipedia-derived summary and a 2025 PDF summary in the provided set, arrive at totals around 3.99–4.0 million and frame the share against a UK population near 67 million [6] [4]. This upward rounding is defensible but should be read as an aggregate estimate rather than a single-source census count because it depends on combining different national datasets.
3. Discrepancies in absolute counts and gender breakdowns: precision vs. rounding
A few entries provide more precise enumerations — for example, a mid-2025 breakdown lists 3,868,133 Muslims in England and Wales with a male/female split (1,960,762 male; 1,907,371 female) — while other summaries round to 3.87, 3.9, or 4.0 million depending on presentation [3] [1] [6]. These differences reflect presentation choices (rounded vs. exact totals) and whether sources attempt to produce a unified UK figure; there is no substantive contradiction about the overall trend: the Muslim population increased markedly between 2011 and 2021, and precise counts hover in a narrow band around 3.87–4.0 million when England and Wales are extrapolated to the UK [2] [3] [4].
4. What the growth means demographically and politically
Analysts in the provided set note reasons behind the growth: higher proportions of women of childbearing age, natural increase, and immigration, producing an increase of roughly 1.16–1.2 million from 2011 to 2021 [2] [4]. This rapid demographic expansion has geographic and social implications: concentrated urban communities, shifting electoral demographics in localities with higher shares of Muslim residents, and policy consequences for services such as education, health, and housing. The summaries emphasize the factual growth without normative claims, but the data are often used by different actors to highlight integration, social services demand, or cultural change, so these figures are politically salient beyond their numerical value [5] [7].
5. How to interpret source agendas and the reliability of the composite picture
The provided outputs come from official census releases and derivative summaries, with consistent core findings: the 2021 census is the anchor, and secondary reports build on it to produce UK-wide estimates. The potential agenda risks are modest but present: rounded UK totals can be used rhetorically to emphasize size or growth; localized figures can be used to argue for either community needs or political narratives. Cross-referencing the precise census entries and the detailed breakdown mitigates misinterpretation: use the England and Wales census as the baseline (3.87–3.9 million, 6.5%) and treat the ~4.0 million UK figure as a well-supported aggregate estimate that combines separate national datasets [1] [3] [4].