Muslim population in the uk
Executive summary
The UK’s Muslim population stood at roughly 3.9 million in the 2021 Census—about 6–6.5% of the national population—concentrated in major urban centres such as London, Birmingham, Manchester, Bradford and Oldham [1] [2] [3]. Forward-looking estimates diverge: short-term projections to 2030 put Muslims at about 5.5 million (≈8.2%) under some scenarios [4], while longer-range forecasts vary widely and are explicitly scenario-dependent [1] [3].
1. What the hard numbers say now: census and official snapshots
The most reliable baseline is the 2021 UK census data, which records roughly 3.9 million people identifying as Muslim in England and Wales and places the share of Muslims in the national mix at about 6–6.5% depending on the jurisdiction and how the total population is counted [1] [5] [6]. Detailed breakdowns in the 2021 census for England and Wales show that about half of Muslims were born in the UK, with substantial numbers born in South Asia, Africa, other parts of Europe and the Middle East—Pakistan and Bangladesh figure among the top countries of birth outside the UK [2].
2. Where Muslims live and why geography matters
Muslim residents are not evenly distributed across the UK: the largest concentrations are in Greater London and other major cities such as Birmingham and Manchester, with towns like Bradford and Oldham having high local shares relative to their size; smaller but long-established communities exist in places such as Cardiff and South Shields [3] [2]. Those settlement patterns are important because national averages mask very different local realities for service provision, politics and social cohesion [3] [2].
3. Why demographers expect growth — and why projections differ
Demographers point to three main drivers of growth: a younger age profile among Muslims, higher average fertility rates historically, and continued migration—factors that have produced steady increases from 2001 to 2011 to 2021 [1] [4] [3]. But projections differ because they hinge on assumptions about future fertility convergence, migration flows and assimilation of age structures; reputable analyses stress these are scenario-based not certainties [1] [4]. For example, Pew-based commentary estimated roughly 5.5 million Muslims by 2030 under stable migration assumptions (≈8.2%) while other models project much larger shares by mid-century under different assumptions [4] [3].
4. What the headlines — and the outliers — get wrong
Sensational or ideologically driven pieces have claimed imminent majorities or dramatic near-term shifts; such claims often rely on extrapolating current trends without accounting for fertility convergence, changing self-identification, or migration policy shifts [7] [8]. Authoritative sources warn that long-range forecasts—through 2050 or 2100—are highly sensitive to model choices and can produce very different outcomes [1] [9]. Readers should treat single-number headlines as one scenario among many and check underlying assumptions [1] [4].
5. Bottom line and limitations of available reporting
The evidence-based bottom line is clear: as of the 2021 census there are roughly 3.9 million Muslims in the UK, making up about 6–6.5% of the population, concentrated in cities and growing for demographic reasons documented by official data [1] [2] [3]. Projections to 2030–2050 vary—some mid-range estimates foresee modest increases to perhaps 8–10% by 2030 under persistent migration and fertility differentials, while long-term scenarios stretch from modest upticks to much larger shares depending on assumptions—so caution is required when interpreting any single projection [4] [3] [1]. Reporting limits include reliance here on secondary summaries and publicly available projection discussions rather than raw ONS trajectory files, so nuance in subnational or age-structured forecasts is not exhaustively covered [1] [2].