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How many Muslims live in the United States as of 2020 and 2023?
Executive Summary
Estimates of how many Muslims lived in the United States in 2020 and 2023 differ sharply because sources use different geographies and methods; published figures for 2020 range from roughly 3.3 million to about 4.45 million, while a broader North America figure of 5.9 million for 2020 is sometimes misattributed to the U.S. For 2023, survey-based estimates extrapolate to roughly 3.3–3.4 million in the U.S., but no single definitive federal count exists [1] [2] [3].
1. What the original claims say — competing headline numbers that confuse readers
Several explicit claims appear across the materials: one analysis cites 5.9 million Muslims in North America in 2020 and notes a 52% growth from 2010 to 2020; another source reports roughly 1% of Americans identify as Muslim in 2023, which translates to about 3.3–3.4 million people when applied to U.S. population totals; separate counts and estimates place the 2020 U.S. Muslim population between ~3 million and ~4.45 million [1] [2] [4] [3]. These divergent headline numbers are the core source of confusion because they are frequently cited without explanation of methods or geography.
2. Why the numbers diverge — methods, geography and definitional choices matter
The largest single driver of discrepancy is different geographic scopes and counting methods. One authoritative figure (5.9 million) explicitly covers North America, not the U.S. alone, and reflects an aggregate regional growth metric [1]. Survey-based results, like the 2023 PRRI census reporting ~1% Muslim identification, rely on self-reported religion in probability samples and are sensitive to question wording and sampling frames [2]. Other estimates come from denominational or institutional censuses and modeling that combine immigration records, birth rates, mosque counts and local surveys; these produce higher totals such as ~4.45 million for 2020 [3]. Methodological heterogeneity, not arithmetic error, explains most of the gap.
3. Assessing 2020 — evidence points to a range, not a single number
For 2020, the documents supply two prominent, conflicting figures: a regional figure of 5.9 million Muslims in North America and a U.S.-specific count of about 4,453,908 from a compiled source [1] [3]. Independent survey-based baselines from earlier years give lower estimates—around 3–3.5 million—which some analysts project forward under different growth scenarios [5]. The most defensible claim for the U.S. in 2020 is therefore a range: roughly 3.0–4.45 million, depending on whether one uses conservative survey identification, institutional modeling, or broader demographic accounting; the 5.9 million figure should not be attributed to the United States alone without correction [1] [3].
4. Assessing 2023 — survey snapshots indicate about 1% identification, implying ~3.3–3.4 million
The clearest 2023-specific datum in the material is the 2023 PRRI Census finding that about 1% of Americans identify as Muslim, which, when applied to U.S. population totals for 2023, produces an estimate near 3.3–3.4 million Muslims [2]. No provided source offers a 2023 institutional census or administrative tally that would push the figure toward the higher 2020 modeling number of 4.45 million. Thus the best-documented 2023 estimate in the supplied materials is roughly 3.3–3.4 million, acknowledging that modeling approaches could yield higher totals if they include non–self-identified cultural Muslims or use different base data [2] [3].
5. What to tell readers — transparent ranges and the limits of available data
Readers should be told clearly that there is no single authoritative U.S. government count of Muslims comparable to a census religion question, so estimates differ by method and scope. Cite the range ~3.0–4.45 million for 2020 and the survey-based ~3.3–3.4 million for 2023 as the most defensible summaries of the supplied materials, and correct the common misattribution of 5.9 million (North America, 2020) to the United States [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and journalists should state the method used (self-identification vs. modeled totals) when reporting any figure and note that different stakeholders—research centers, advocacy groups and demographic modelers—may favor numbers that align with their data choices or institutional aims [1] [4].
6. Remaining uncertainties and what would resolve them
Key uncertainties include how to count non–self-identified cultural Muslims, whether to include U.S. territories, and differences in sampling frames across surveys. Resolving these uncertainties requires either a standardized, large-scale probabilistic survey with consistent religion questions or an official census religion item—neither of which exists in the provided materials. Until such authoritative data appear, the responsible approach is to present a documented range with methods attached, and to avoid conflating North American totals with U.S.-only figures [1] [2] [3].