How many Muslims live in the United States as of 2025 and what are the main data sources?
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Executive summary
Three competing estimates circulate for the number of Muslims in the United States around 2025: roughly 3.4–3.9 million from public-data aggregators and survey firms, about 4.5 million from the 2020 U.S. Religion Census, and claims of under 3 million from some survey-sponsored analyses — the divergence reflects different methods, datasets and institutional agendas rather than a single settled figure [1] [2] [3]. The primary reason for the spread is that the federal census does not collect religion, forcing researchers to rely on indirect methods — mosque counts, self‑reported surveys, and organizational censuses — each with strengths and systematic biases [4] [3].
1. The midrange public estimates: ~3.4–3.9 million
Prominent public data aggregators and market-research compilations report totals in the mid‑millions: World Population Review cites a commonly referenced 3.45 million figure that traces back to earlier Pew estimates and similar surveys [1], while Statista lists about 3.85 million in its 2025 presentation of U.S. Muslim statistics [2]. These sources generally synthesize survey results, academic estimates and modelled state breakdowns to produce national totals, which makes them useful barometers of consensus but dependent on the original surveys’ sampling frames and weighting choices [1] [2].
2. The higher institutional count: 4.5 million from the 2020 U.S. Religion Census
The 2020 U.S. Religion Census — an organizational-level count compiled by religious bodies and researchers — estimates roughly 4.5 million Muslims in the United States, a figure that Justice For All highlights in its 2025 profile [3] [5]. That census aggregates self‑reported membership across mosques and religious institutions and thus can produce higher totals because it counts institutional affiliation and congregational rolls rather than relying solely on household survey responses [3]. Critics warn this approach can double-count individuals who are affiliated with multiple institutions or overcount inactive registrants, producing an upper bound rather than a definitive population total [3].
3. The lower alternative: surveys that place Muslims under 3 million
Not every dataset points upward; Justice For All reports that some surveys — notably ones funded by the American Jewish Committee — estimate the Muslim population at less than three million, illustrating how different survey designs and sponsorships can yield markedly different numbers [3]. These lower estimates typically derive from household-level probability surveys with conservative weighting schemes and smaller Muslim sample sizes, which can undercount minority religious populations if response rates or sampling frames are imperfect [3].
4. Why numbers differ: methods, geography and institutional incentives
The United States lacks a religion question on the federal census, forcing reliance on indirect approaches — national probability surveys (Pew, other academic polls), organizational censuses of mosques and Islamic centers, administrative and business datasets, and state-level modeling — each with tradeoffs: surveys can miss hard‑to‑reach respondents and produce wide margins of error for small groups, while institutional counts may inflate totals through affiliative overlaps; state breakdowns published by World Population Review and Datapandas show concentration in New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Texas, reflecting both immigrant settlement patterns and differing data sources [4] [1] [6]. Transparent researchers note these methodological limits; some advocacy groups emphasize higher totals to signal political weight, while others highlight lower numbers to argue for different policy emphases, so sponsorship and intended use should be read into each estimate [3].
5. Best practice for readers: treat totals as ranges, note sources
The clearest, evidence‑based position is to present a range and cite the underlying source: mid‑range estimates place the U.S. Muslim population around 3.4–3.9 million [1] [2], the U.S. Religion Census gives a higher institutional figure near 4.5 million [3], and some surveys report totals below 3 million [3]; the absence of a federal religion question means none of these is definitive, and state breakdowns and mosque counts are useful for regional context though they carry their own biases [4] [7] [8]. Readers should demand the methodology behind any headline number — sample frames, weighting, and whether counts are institutional or household-based — before drawing firm conclusions about size, growth or political representation [9] [3].